Ongoing US-Turkey bilateral talks under the Trump administration have raised prospects for resolving the S-400 dispute that prompted Turkey’s 2019 removal from the F-35 program under CAATSA sanctions. President Trump has signaled openness to reconsidering participation, while Turkish officials describe negotiations as advancing toward a potential breakthrough, including options like rendering the systems inoperable or transferring components. However, a July 2026 State Department communication to Congress confirmed that legal conditions remain unmet, and opposition in Congress—particularly from members concerned about NATO interoperability and regional tensions with Greece—continues to constrain progress. Traders assessing reentry timelines weigh these diplomatic signals against statutory hurdles and the lack of any formal reversal to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$27,108 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
11%
June 30, 2027
36%
$27,108 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$26,622 Vol.
11%
June 30, 2027
$485 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Ongoing US-Turkey bilateral talks under the Trump administration have raised prospects for resolving the S-400 dispute that prompted Turkey’s 2019 removal from the F-35 program under CAATSA sanctions. President Trump has signaled openness to reconsidering participation, while Turkish officials describe negotiations as advancing toward a potential breakthrough, including options like rendering the systems inoperable or transferring components. However, a July 2026 State Department communication to Congress confirmed that legal conditions remain unmet, and opposition in Congress—particularly from members concerned about NATO interoperability and regional tensions with Greece—continues to constrain progress. Traders assessing reentry timelines weigh these diplomatic signals against statutory hurdles and the lack of any formal reversal to date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$27,108End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Ongoing US-Turkey bilateral talks under the Trump administration have raised prospects for resolving the S-400 dispute that prompted Turkey’s 2019 removal from the F-35 program under CAATSA sanctions. President Trump has signaled openness to reconsidering participation, while Turkish officials describe negotiations as advancing toward a potential breakthrough, including options like rendering the systems inoperable or transferring components. However, a July 2026 State Department communication to Congress confirmed that legal conditions remain unmet, and opposition in Congress—particularly from members concerned about NATO interoperability and regional tensions with Greece—continues to constrain progress. Traders assessing reentry timelines weigh these diplomatic signals against statutory hurdles and the lack of any formal reversal to date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$27,108End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Turkey bilateral talks under the Trump administration have raised prospects for resolving the S-400 dispute that prompted Turkey’s 2019 removal from the F-35 program under CAATSA sanctions. President Trump has signaled openness to reconsidering participation, while Turkish officials describe negotiations as advancing toward a potential breakthrough, including options like rendering the systems inoperable or transferring components. However, a July 2026 State Department communication to Congress confirmed that legal conditions remain unmet, and opposition in Congress—particularly from members concerned about NATO interoperability and regional tensions with Greece—continues to constrain progress. Traders assessing reentry timelines weigh these diplomatic signals against statutory hurdles and the lack of any formal reversal to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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