Market icon
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$205,854 Vol.

Oct 4, 2026
Polymarket

$205,854 Vol.

Polymarket

Flavio Bolsonaro

$15,094 Vol.

87%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$96,358 Vol.

71%

Fernando Haddad

$29,770 Vol.

10%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$55,472 Vol.

5%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$0 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$9,161 Vol.

4%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from March 2026, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Futura surveys, show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro pulling even or ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in simulated runoffs and leading slightly in first-round scenarios at around 40% to Lula's 35%, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others trailing far behind. This tightening reflects scandals eroding Lula's support amid his bid for a fourth term, while Flávio gains from his father's endorsement and opposition consolidation. No candidate nears the 50%+ threshold for outright victory, making a top-two finish on October 4 the key to advancing to the October 25 runoff, though months of campaigning, economic shifts, and further polling could reshape the field.

Recent polls from March 2026, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Futura surveys, show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro pulling even or ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in simulated runoffs and leading slightly in first-round scenarios at around 40% to Lula's 35%, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others trailing far behind. This tightening reflects scandals eroding Lula's support amid his bid for a fourth term, while Flávio gains from his father's endorsement and opposition consolidation. No candidate nears the 50%+ threshold for outright victory, making a top-two finish on October 4 the key to advancing to the October 25 runoff, though months of campaigning, economic shifts, and further polling could reshape the field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from March 2026, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Futura surveys, show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro pulling even or ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in simulated runoffs and leading slightly in first-round scenarios at around 40% to Lula's 35%, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others trailing far behind. This tightening reflects scandals eroding Lula's support amid his bid for a fourth term, while Flávio gains from his father's endorsement and opposition consolidation. No candidate nears the 50%+ threshold for outright victory, making a top-two finish on October 4 the key to advancing to the October 25 runoff, though months of campaigning, economic shifts, and further polling could reshape the field.

Recent polls from March 2026, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Futura surveys, show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro pulling even or ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in simulated runoffs and leading slightly in first-round scenarios at around 40% to Lula's 35%, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others trailing far behind. This tightening reflects scandals eroding Lula's support amid his bid for a fourth term, while Flávio gains from his father's endorsement and opposition consolidation. No candidate nears the 50%+ threshold for outright victory, making a top-two finish on October 4 the key to advancing to the October 25 runoff, though months of campaigning, economic shifts, and further polling could reshape the field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 87%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 71%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" has generated $205.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 71%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.