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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$287,471 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$287,471 Vol.

Polymarket

Eric Swalwell

$10,970 Vol.

63%

Steve Hilton

$4,123 Vol.

61%

Chad Bianco

$0 Vol.

36%

Tom Steyer

$17,340 Vol.

28%

Matt Mahan

$10,057 Vol.

19%

Elaine Culotti

$0 Vol.

18%

Katie Porter

$0 Vol.

19%

Xavier Becerra

$2,973 Vol.

8%

Tony Thurmond

$966 Vol.

6%

Betty Yee

$2,629 Vol.

6%

David Thelen

$750 Vol.

6%

Ché Ahn

$14,574 Vol.

5%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,470 Vol.

5%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

4%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

4%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$11,452 Vol.

4%

Dylan Colbert

$13,295 Vol.

3%

Daniel Mercuri

$8,309 Vol.

3%

Ryan Tillman

$1,012 Vol.

3%

Nicki Minaj

$0 Vol.

3%

Derek Grasty

$1,039 Vol.

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$0 Vol.

2%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

10%

Leonard Jackson

$0 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$0 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$0 Vol.

2%

Kyle Langford

$0 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$0 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$0 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$11,334 Vol.

2%

Thunder Parley

$0 Vol.

1%

Ramsey Robinson

$0 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$33,393 Vol.

1%

Ian Calderon

$103,033 Vol.

1%

Sophia Brink

$37,751 Vol.

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, trader sentiment hinges on a fragmented Democratic field in the open race succeeding term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, boosting Republicans' chances of advancing both finalists despite the state's blue lean. The latest Berkeley IGS poll (early March 2026) shows Fox contributor Steve Hilton at 17% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16% leading likely voters, edging Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter (13% each), with 25% undecided amid historically low enthusiasm. An Emerson survey (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%, highlighting volatility from 10 candidates. Ballots mail May 4, with early voting starting late May; Dem consolidation or GOP turnout shifts could tip the balance.

In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, trader sentiment hinges on a fragmented Democratic field in the open race succeeding term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, boosting Republicans' chances of advancing both finalists despite the state's blue lean. The latest Berkeley IGS poll (early March 2026) shows Fox contributor Steve Hilton at 17% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16% leading likely voters, edging Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter (13% each), with 25% undecided amid historically low enthusiasm. An Emerson survey (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%, highlighting volatility from 10 candidates. Ballots mail May 4, with early voting starting late May; Dem consolidation or GOP turnout shifts could tip the balance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, trader sentiment hinges on a fragmented Democratic field in the open race succeeding term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, boosting Republicans' chances of advancing both finalists despite the state's blue lean. The latest Berkeley IGS poll (early March 2026) shows Fox contributor Steve Hilton at 17% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16% leading likely voters, edging Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter (13% each), with 25% undecided amid historically low enthusiasm. An Emerson survey (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%, highlighting volatility from 10 candidates. Ballots mail May 4, with early voting starting late May; Dem consolidation or GOP turnout shifts could tip the balance.

In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, trader sentiment hinges on a fragmented Democratic field in the open race succeeding term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, boosting Republicans' chances of advancing both finalists despite the state's blue lean. The latest Berkeley IGS poll (early March 2026) shows Fox contributor Steve Hilton at 17% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16% leading likely voters, edging Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter (13% each), with 25% undecided amid historically low enthusiasm. An Emerson survey (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%, highlighting volatility from 10 candidates. Ballots mail May 4, with early voting starting late May; Dem consolidation or GOP turnout shifts could tip the balance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 63%, followed by "Steve Hilton" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $287.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Eric Swalwell" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.