CA-04 Primary Winners

Name: CA-04 Primary Winners
Start: 2026-02-26T22:43:11.256Z
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

NEW

Jun 2, 2026

Mike Thompson

$1,641 Vol.

86%

Eric Jones

$899 Vol.

77%

Trevor Merrell

$0 Vol.

24%

Sharon Brown

$990 Vol.

Mandy Ghusar

$0 Vol.

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

Laurie MacKenzie

$0 Vol.

John Wesley Tyler

$0 Vol.

$3,530 Vol.

Mike Thompson

$1,641 Vol.

86%

Eric Jones

$899 Vol.

77%

Trevor Merrell

$0 Vol.

24%

Sharon Brown

$990 Vol.

Mandy Ghusar

$0 Vol.

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

Laurie MacKenzie

$0 Vol.

John Wesley Tyler

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

In California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary held March 5, 2024, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock (R) for first place at around 43% of votes and challenger Rick Dalby (R) for second at 26%, based on official tallies from county elections offices, with both advancing to the November general election in this Republican-leaning rural district spanning the Sierra Nevada. Recent ballot updates confirmed McClintock's lead solidified post-election night, while Dalby's edge over Democrats held firm amid low turnout. Official certification expected by late March could finalize markets, though recounts remain unlikely absent discrepancies; the intra-party November matchup now draws focus for House control implications.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 20, 2026, 6:21 AM UTC

Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?

88%

Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?

96%

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?

92%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 86%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 77%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-04 Primary Winners" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Primary Winners" is "Mike Thompson" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 77%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "CA-04 Primary Winners." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “CA-04 Primary Winners” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 86¢ for "Mike Thompson" in the "CA-04 Primary Winners" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 86% chance that "Mike Thompson" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 86¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 14¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "CA-04 Primary Winners" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 2, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "CA-04 Primary Winners" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "CA-04 Primary Winners." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

CA-04 Primary Winners

CA-04 Primary Winners

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Frequently Asked Questions

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