Lara Bird, the Scottish National Party candidate, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% for the 18 June 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election due to the SNP's established local organization, recent 2024 general election victory in the constituency, and intensive ground campaigning by party figures ahead of polling. The seat, created for the last general election and held by Stephen Gethins until his move to Holyrood, features a narrow prior majority over Labour, but short campaign timelines and limited opposition visibility have reinforced expectations of continuity. Other candidates, including those from Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK, trail sharply in implied probabilities. Late shifts could still occur through unusually high turnout among opposition voters or unforeseen national developments, though the current market pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game assessment of an SNP hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLara Bird 98.9%
Heather Doran <1%
Jack Cruickshanks <1%
Tanvir Ahmad <1%
$10,081 Vol.
$10,081 Vol.
Lara Bird
Yes
Heather Doran
No
Bill Reid
No
Jack Cruickshanks
No
Tanvir Ahmad
No
Lara Bird 98.9%
Heather Doran <1%
Jack Cruickshanks <1%
Tanvir Ahmad <1%
$10,081 Vol.
$10,081 Vol.
Lara Bird
Yes
Heather Doran
No
Bill Reid
No
Jack Cruickshanks
No
Tanvir Ahmad
No
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Lara Bird, the Scottish National Party candidate, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% for the 18 June 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election due to the SNP's established local organization, recent 2024 general election victory in the constituency, and intensive ground campaigning by party figures ahead of polling. The seat, created for the last general election and held by Stephen Gethins until his move to Holyrood, features a narrow prior majority over Labour, but short campaign timelines and limited opposition visibility have reinforced expectations of continuity. Other candidates, including those from Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK, trail sharply in implied probabilities. Late shifts could still occur through unusually high turnout among opposition voters or unforeseen national developments, though the current market pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game assessment of an SNP hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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