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Elections·Primaries

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

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Elections·Primaries

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Laura Gillen 61%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 6.0%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket

$15,555 Vol.

Laura Gillen 61%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 6.0%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket

$15,555 Vol.

Laura Gillen

$4,551 Vol.

69%

Nicholas Sciretta

$7,368 Vol.

14%

Taylor Darling

$2,021 Vol.

6%

Gian Jones

$1,616 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability for the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising with over $3.2 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings, and endorsements from Nassau County Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs and groups like EMILYs List and MoveOn. Challengers trail amid limited resources and visibility: Nicholas Sciretta at 13% benefits from local town halls like recent Freeport events, while former Assemblymember Taylor Darling at 5.7% launched her bid in February over Gillen's ICE funding vote but shows modest traction; Gian Jones remains marginal at 0.3%. No public polls exist, so odds reflect party establishment backing and financial edge in this closed primary, with petition deadlines passed and campaigning intensifying.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15,555
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability for the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising with over $3.2 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings, and endorsements from Nassau County Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs and groups like EMILYs List and MoveOn. Challengers trail amid limited resources and visibility: Nicholas Sciretta at 13% benefits from local town halls like recent Freeport events, while former Assemblymember Taylor Darling at 5.7% launched her bid in February over Gillen's ICE funding vote but shows modest traction; Gian Jones remains marginal at 0.3%. No public polls exist, so odds reflect party establishment backing and financial edge in this closed primary, with petition deadlines passed and campaigning intensifying.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15,555
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Laura Gillen" at 69%, followed by "Nicholas Sciretta" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $15.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Laura Gillen" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nicholas Sciretta" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.