**Multiple rejections by Peru’s Presidential Pardons Commission and the shift to a Fujimori-led administration have solidified trader expectations against a 2026 pardon for former President Pedro Castillo.** Interim President José María Balcázar’s government declared the latest of 17 pardon requests inadmissible in July 2026, citing procedural failures and unmet requirements such as pending cases. The commission archived the petition, ending any prospect of release during the transitional term despite earlier promises. After Keiko Fujimori assumed office in late July 2026, Justice Minister Ernesto Álvarez explicitly ruled a pardon “impossible” in August, describing related protests as blackmail and noting the existing legal resolution of Castillo’s 11-year, 5-month sentence for conspiracy to commit rebellion following his December 2022 attempt to dissolve Congress. Additional pretrial detention in separate corruption investigations was extended through March 2027, with the Supreme Court reviewing its continuation in September without altering the conviction status. These confirmed institutional actions—repeated commission rejections, executive clarification under the new administration, and ongoing judicial proceedings—account for the 94.5% implied probability that no pardon will occur before year-end. No subsequent developments have reversed this positioning.