**Recent official rejections of pardon requests and court rulings upholding Castillo’s detention explain the strong trader consensus against a 2026 pardon.** Peru’s Presidential Graces Commission declared multiple 2026 applications inadmissible under interim President José María Balcázar, including a July decision that closed the process before the end of his transitional term. Castillo continues serving an 11-year sentence for conspiracy tied to his 2022 attempted dissolution of Congress, while separate proceedings have extended preventive detention until March 2027. Peruvian courts have rejected related habeas corpus filings and UN Working Group recommendations on arbitrary detention. These procedural and substantive barriers, reinforced by repeated executive and judicial actions through mid-2026, have produced the current 94.5% implied probability that no pardon will occur this year.