**Robert Kenyon leads the "Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place" market at 88% implied probability, far ahead of Andy Burnham at 11.9%, with all other candidates below 1%.** The by-election, held on 18 June 2026 after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to clear a path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, pits Burnham (Labour) against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who finished second in the seat at the 2024 general election. Polls in the final week showed Burnham leading but in a tight race, with Reform close behind and other parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens) well back. Kenyon's strong local profile, Reform's prior showing in Makerfield, and national momentum for the party position him as the clear runner-up in trader consensus. Burnham is priced for first place, while minor candidates lack the polling or structural support to challenge for second. The contest's national stakes, tied to potential Labour leadership implications, have focused attention on the top two.