The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiRobert Kenyon 75%
Andy Burnham 22.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 3.0%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$149,846 Vol.
$149,846 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
75%
Andy Burnham
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 75%
Andy Burnham 22.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 3.0%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$149,846 Vol.
$149,846 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
$5,494 Vol.
75%
Andy Burnham
$4,221 Vol.
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
$135,597 Vol.
3%
Simon Finkelstein
$1,374 Vol.
<1%
John Skipworth
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
Maria Deery
$788 Vol.
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$149,846Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$149,846Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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