Recent polling from Opinium and Survation shows Labour's Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in the June 18 by-election, positioning the contest as a tight two-candidate race driven by local frustration over immigration, cost of living, and national Labour leadership dynamics. Kenyon, a local plumber and 2024 general election runner-up, benefits from Reform's strong local election gains and endorsements highlighting anti-establishment sentiment, making him the consensus choice for second place if Burnham secures victory. Burnham's profile as Greater Manchester mayor and potential Labour leadership contender boosts turnout among core voters but leaves limited room for other candidates like the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats to challenge for runner-up. Recent campaign debates and voter interviews confirm minimal support for minor-party options, reinforcing the binary dynamic reflected in current market pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMakerfield by-election: 2nd Place
Robert Kenyon 77%
Andy Burnham 21.7%
Rebecca Shepherd 2.8%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$153,193 Vol.
$153,193 Vol.
Robert Kenyon
77%
Andy Burnham
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 77%
Andy Burnham 21.7%
Rebecca Shepherd 2.8%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$153,193 Vol.
$153,193 Vol.
Robert Kenyon
77%
Andy Burnham
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Markt eröffnet: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Opinium and Survation shows Labour's Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in the June 18 by-election, positioning the contest as a tight two-candidate race driven by local frustration over immigration, cost of living, and national Labour leadership dynamics. Kenyon, a local plumber and 2024 general election runner-up, benefits from Reform's strong local election gains and endorsements highlighting anti-establishment sentiment, making him the consensus choice for second place if Burnham secures victory. Burnham's profile as Greater Manchester mayor and potential Labour leadership contender boosts turnout among core voters but leaves limited room for other candidates like the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats to challenge for runner-up. Recent campaign debates and voter interviews confirm minimal support for minor-party options, reinforcing the binary dynamic reflected in current market pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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