**The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June 2026, follows Labour MP Josh Simons’ resignation to enable Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat.** This has turned the contest into a high-profile national event, with polls showing Burnham (Labour) holding a narrow lead over Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who previously placed second for Reform in the 2024 general election. Kenyon benefits from strong underlying Reform support in the constituency—where the party secured over 30% in 2024 and leads generic ballots—along with voter frustration over cost-of-living issues, immigration, and energy policy. Minor candidates, including Rebecca Shepherd, trail far behind in all surveys. Trader consensus prices Kenyon as the clear favourite for second place because recent named-candidate polling consistently places him behind only Burnham, with the gap attributable to the latter’s personal profile rather than a broad shift away from Reform. Developments in the final week, including candidate debates and local campaigning, have reinforced this two-way dynamic without materially altering the ordering. The short timeline to polling day limits scope for late swings that could elevate another contender into second.