Recent polling and local election trends position Reform UK's Robert Kenyon as the clear frontrunner for second place in the 18 June Makerfield by-election, reflecting the party's strong local performance and voter frustration with mainstream options on issues such as immigration and living costs. Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor with deep constituency ties, leads narrowly in surveys but is expected to take first, leaving Kenyon as the main challenger in what analysts describe as a two-horse contest. Minor candidates including Rebecca Shepherd trail far behind with negligible support, consistent with historical patterns where smaller parties struggle in high-profile by-elections. The final-week debate and Reform's intensive campaign have reinforced this dynamic without shifting the overall positioning.