Recent polling and campaign developments indicate Labour’s Andy Burnham holds a clear lead in the Makerfield by-election, positioning Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon as the most likely runner-up. Local surveys show Burnham ahead, though the margin narrows among likely voters, while tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters appears aimed at consolidating the anti-Reform vote. Kenyon’s candidacy has drawn attention over past comments, potentially limiting broader appeal in a constituency with notable female and centrist voters. Minor-party candidates trail significantly in available data, reducing their prospects for second place. With voting scheduled for 18 June, trader consensus reflects expectations of a Labour victory and a competitive but secondary Reform performance.