The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Robert Kenyon 75%
Andy Burnham 22.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 3.0%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$149,846 거래량
$149,846 거래량
2026.06.18
Robert Kenyon
75%
Andy Burnham
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 75%
Andy Burnham 22.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 3.0%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$149,846 거래량
$149,846 거래량
2026.06.18
Robert Kenyon
$5,494 거래량
75%
Andy Burnham
$4,221 거래량
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
$135,597 거래량
3%
Simon Finkelstein
$1,374 거래량
<1%
John Skipworth
$1,215 거래량
<1%
Maria Deery
$788 거래량
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$1,158 거래량
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
마켓 개설일: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
거래량
$149,846종료일
2026.06.18마켓 개설일
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
거래량
$149,846종료일
2026.06.18마켓 개설일
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Makerfield by-election on 18 June pits Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to qualify for party leadership, against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor positioned as the primary challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead over Kenyon among likely voters, framing the contest as a two-horse race in this former Labour stronghold now viewed as marginal. Voter frustration with national politics and cost-of-living pressures has boosted Reform’s profile, with high-profile endorsements reinforcing Kenyon’s second-place positioning in trader assessments. Minor-party candidates trail far behind, consistent with historical by-election patterns where smaller parties rarely break into the top two. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the short remaining campaign window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문