Robert Kenyon leads the 2nd-place market at 88% because recent polling shows Reform UK mounting a competitive challenge to Labour’s Andy Burnham in tomorrow’s Makerfield by-election, with one survey placing the parties within five points among likely voters. Reform’s local strength, including gains in recent council contests, combined with Nigel Farage’s active campaigning and voter concerns over immigration and the economy, has elevated Kenyon’s profile as the main alternative. Burnham’s bid, framed as a stepping-stone to a potential Labour leadership contest against Keir Starmer, has drawn national attention but left room for Reform to consolidate protest votes. Minor candidates trail far behind, reflecting limited support for other parties in the constituency. The tight overall race and Reform’s momentum have shaped trader consensus around a strong second-place finish for Kenyon.