The Makerfield by-election on 18 June features a two-horse contest between Labour's Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat to position himself for a potential leadership challenge, and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber. Recent polls show Burnham holding a narrow lead among likely voters, driven by Labour's organizational resources and Burnham's profile, while Kenyon benefits from strong local support on immigration and economic discontent plus high-profile backing from Nigel Farage and Ant Middleton. The campaign debate and voter frustration with the incumbent government have sharpened the race, with minor candidates from the Conservatives, Greens, and others showing minimal traction. Trader consensus on second place reflects the expectation that Reform will outperform other challengers but fall short of victory.