Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Bev Craig 15%+ 100.0%
Bev Craig 10–15% <1%
Bev Craig 5–10% <1%
Bev Craig <5% <1%
$14,751 Vol.
$14,751 Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig 15%+
Yes
Bev Craig 10–15%
No
Bev Craig 5–10%
No
Bev Craig <5%
No
Sian Astley <5%
No
Sian Astley 5%+
No
Other
No
Bev Craig 15%+ 100.0%
Bev Craig 10–15% <1%
Bev Craig 5–10% <1%
Bev Craig <5% <1%
$14,751 Vol.
$14,751 Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig 15%+
$7,660 Vol.
Yes
Bev Craig 10–15%
$983 Vol.
No
Bev Craig 5–10%
$1,330 Vol.
No
Bev Craig <5%
$1,466 Vol.
No
Sian Astley <5%
$731 Vol.
No
Sian Astley 5%+
$1,430 Vol.
No
Other
$1,150 Vol.
No
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Market Opened: Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$14,751End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$14,751End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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