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icon for Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
Politics·Makerfield

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

icon for Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
Politics·Makerfield

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

$259,143 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$259,143 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for December 31, 2026

December 31, 2026

$258,395 Vol.

17%

icon for March 31, 2027

March 31, 2027

$748 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Nigel Farage remains Reform UK leader amid ongoing scrutiny of party finances and donations, including a suspended parliamentary standards investigation into a £5 million undeclared gift and a fresh Channel 4 undercover report aired during the September 2026 party conference that prompted two senior officials to step back. Farage won a Clacton by-election in August after resigning his seat in July to seek voter endorsement on the issues, framing it as a contest against the establishment. At the Birmingham conference, he outlined 100-day policy pledges while facing internal strains and declining personal favorability ratings, though the party continues to lead national polls ahead of the next general election. These developments, alongside Farage’s central role in Reform’s electoral gains since 2024, shape trader assessments of any near-term leadership transition.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$259,143
End Date
Apr 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 5:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Nigel Farage remains Reform UK leader amid ongoing scrutiny of party finances and donations, including a suspended parliamentary standards investigation into a £5 million undeclared gift and a fresh Channel 4 undercover report aired during the September 2026 party conference that prompted two senior officials to step back. Farage won a Clacton by-election in August after resigning his seat in July to seek voter endorsement on the issues, framing it as a contest against the establishment. At the Birmingham conference, he outlined 100-day policy pledges while facing internal strains and declining personal favorability ratings, though the party continues to lead national polls ahead of the next general election. These developments, alongside Farage’s central role in Reform’s electoral gains since 2024, shape trader assessments of any near-term leadership transition.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$259,143
End Date
Apr 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 5:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 31, 2027" at 26%, followed by "December 31, 2026" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?" has generated $259.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?" is "March 31, 2027" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.