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Politics·Erdogan

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·Erdogan

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?

42% chance
Polymarket
NEW
42% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AK Party completed a new civilian constitution draft in February 2026 and prepared a reform roadmap, with President Erdoğan designating the year as one of key changes, yet traders see slim chances of a referendum announcement by year-end, pricing "No" at 65.5%. The draft has not been tabled in the Grand National Assembly, where the AK Party-MHP alliance holds around 323 seats—short of the 360 needed to trigger a popular vote on amendments—necessitating opposition support amid resistance from CHP and others. No notable parliamentary action followed in March or early April, as focus shifted to a Kurdish peace process commission report, while unconfirmed health concerns for Erdoğan fuel succession debates, underscoring procedural and political hurdles.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.

If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$191
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AK Party completed a new civilian constitution draft in February 2026 and prepared a reform roadmap, with President Erdoğan designating the year as one of key changes, yet traders see slim chances of a referendum announcement by year-end, pricing "No" at 65.5%. The draft has not been tabled in the Grand National Assembly, where the AK Party-MHP alliance holds around 323 seats—short of the 360 needed to trigger a popular vote on amendments—necessitating opposition support amid resistance from CHP and others. No notable parliamentary action followed in March or early April, as focus shifted to a Kurdish peace process commission report, while unconfirmed health concerns for Erdoğan fuel succession debates, underscoring procedural and political hurdles.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.

If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$191
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 33% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 33¢, the market collectively assigns a 33% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?" is 33% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 33% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.