Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No Bond chosen" at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting Amazon MGM Studios' prolonged search for Daniel Craig's successor five years post-No Time to Die, with Bond 26's script by Steven Knight only recently advancing amid director talks like Denis Villeneuve—no official casting announcement has materialized despite mounting speculation. Callum Turner leads challengers at 15.5% following February Berlin Film Festival buzz where he coyly addressed frontrunner reports, while Jacob Elordi's 13.3% stems from rumored meetings with Villeneuve and his 2026 Oscar-nominated momentum in Frankenstein. Lower odds for veterans like Aaron Taylor-Johnson (2.5%) signal fading earlier hype, as traders await precursor signals like test screenings or guild alignments before the anticipated 2028 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext James Bond actor?
Next James Bond actor?
No Bond chosen 62%
Callum Turner 16%
Jacob Elordi 13.9%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.6%
$1,736,532 Vol.
$1,736,532 Vol.
No Bond chosen
62%
Callum Turner
16%
Jacob Elordi
14%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
3%
James Norton
2%
Henry Cavill
2%
Theo James
1%
Josh O'Connor
1%
Tom Hardy
1%
Paul Mescal
1%
Jack Lowdon
<1%
Harris Dickinson
<1%
Pierce Brosnan
<1%
Tom Holland
<1%
Robert James-Collier
<1%
No Bond chosen 62%
Callum Turner 16%
Jacob Elordi 13.9%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.6%
$1,736,532 Vol.
$1,736,532 Vol.
No Bond chosen
62%
Callum Turner
16%
Jacob Elordi
14%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
3%
James Norton
2%
Henry Cavill
2%
Theo James
1%
Josh O'Connor
1%
Tom Hardy
1%
Paul Mescal
1%
Jack Lowdon
<1%
Harris Dickinson
<1%
Pierce Brosnan
<1%
Tom Holland
<1%
Robert James-Collier
<1%
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No Bond chosen" at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting Amazon MGM Studios' prolonged search for Daniel Craig's successor five years post-No Time to Die, with Bond 26's script by Steven Knight only recently advancing amid director talks like Denis Villeneuve—no official casting announcement has materialized despite mounting speculation. Callum Turner leads challengers at 15.5% following February Berlin Film Festival buzz where he coyly addressed frontrunner reports, while Jacob Elordi's 13.3% stems from rumored meetings with Villeneuve and his 2026 Oscar-nominated momentum in Frankenstein. Lower odds for veterans like Aaron Taylor-Johnson (2.5%) signal fading earlier hype, as traders await precursor signals like test screenings or guild alignments before the anticipated 2028 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions