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Next James Bond actor?

Market icon

Next James Bond actor?

No Bond chosen 62%

Callum Turner 19%

Jacob Elordi 12.3%

Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.4%

Polymarket

$1,726,987 Vol.

No Bond chosen 62%

Callum Turner 19%

Jacob Elordi 12.3%

Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.4%

Polymarket

$1,726,987 Vol.

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No Bond chosen

$247,324 Vol.

62%

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Callum Turner

$112,020 Vol.

19%

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Jacob Elordi

$230,649 Vol.

12%

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Aaron Taylor-Johnson

$96,988 Vol.

2%

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James Norton

$108,239 Vol.

2%

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Henry Cavill

$238,794 Vol.

2%

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Josh O'Connor

$26,747 Vol.

1%

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Paul Mescal

$90,780 Vol.

1%

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Tom Hardy

$71,737 Vol.

1%

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Jack Lowdon

$82,012 Vol.

<1%

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Harris Dickinson

$139,483 Vol.

<1%

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Theo James

$20,297 Vol.

<1%

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Pierce Brosnan

$175,420 Vol.

<1%

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Tom Holland

$66,439 Vol.

<1%

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Robert James-Collier

$20,057 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No Bond chosen" at a 61.5% implied probability for the next James Bond actor, driven by the absence of any official Eon Productions announcement for Denis Villeneuve's Bond 26, with credible insider reports as recent as late February 2026 confirming no casting movement despite rampant speculation. Callum Turner leads candidates at 19%, propelled by his evasive yet optimistic Berlinale comments in mid-February and a mid-March odds surge reflecting his rising profile in prestige films, though unverified rumors have since cooled sentiment. Jacob Elordi's 9.6% stake stems from unconfirmed meetings with Villeneuve and awards buzz, while Aaron Taylor-Johnson's low 2.9% marks the fade of prior tabloid hype. Mid-2026 casting looms as the key catalyst amid the franchise's deliberate reboot strategy.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,726,987
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No Bond chosen" at a 61.5% implied probability for the next James Bond actor, driven by the absence of any official Eon Productions announcement for Denis Villeneuve's Bond 26, with credible insider reports as recent as late February 2026 confirming no casting movement despite rampant speculation. Callum Turner leads candidates at 19%, propelled by his evasive yet optimistic Berlinale comments in mid-February and a mid-March odds surge reflecting his rising profile in prestige films, though unverified rumors have since cooled sentiment. Jacob Elordi's 9.6% stake stems from unconfirmed meetings with Villeneuve and awards buzz, while Aaron Taylor-Johnson's low 2.9% marks the fade of prior tabloid hype. Mid-2026 casting looms as the key catalyst amid the franchise's deliberate reboot strategy.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,726,987
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next James Bond actor?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Bond chosen" at 62%, followed by "Callum Turner" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next James Bond actor?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next James Bond actor?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next James Bond actor?" is "No Bond chosen" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Callum Turner" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next James Bond actor?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.