Avengers: Doomsday holds a commanding 79.5% implied probability as trader consensus for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by Marvel Studios' unmatched track record—previous Avengers films like Endgame shattered records with $350M+ domestic debuts—and the Russo brothers' return directing a multiverse saga pitting heroes against Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom. Recent momentum from Deadpool & Wolverine's $1.3B global smash and D23 Expo teases have solidified MCU recovery hype, outpacing Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 8.5% on solid Spidey precedent but tougher July competition. Dune: Messiah and others trail amid winter slots and lesser franchise firepower; watch for early 2025 trailer drops and tracking updates as catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 80%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 9%
Dune: Messiah 2.3%
The Odyssey 2.1%
$1,242,841 Vol.
$1,242,841 Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
80%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
9%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Odyssey
2%
Toy Story 5
2%
Michael
2%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Project Hail Mary
<1%
Scream 7
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 80%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 9%
Dune: Messiah 2.3%
The Odyssey 2.1%
$1,242,841 Vol.
$1,242,841 Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
80%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
9%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Odyssey
2%
Toy Story 5
2%
Michael
2%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Project Hail Mary
<1%
Scream 7
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday holds a commanding 79.5% implied probability as trader consensus for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by Marvel Studios' unmatched track record—previous Avengers films like Endgame shattered records with $350M+ domestic debuts—and the Russo brothers' return directing a multiverse saga pitting heroes against Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom. Recent momentum from Deadpool & Wolverine's $1.3B global smash and D23 Expo teases have solidified MCU recovery hype, outpacing Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 8.5% on solid Spidey precedent but tougher July competition. Dune: Messiah and others trail amid winter slots and lesser franchise firepower; watch for early 2025 trailer drops and tracking updates as catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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