Byron Donalds holds a clear edge in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race, an open-seat contest following term limits on incumbent Ron DeSantis, as Florida's Republican tilt and recent polling averages underpin trader pricing. Donalds secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with nearly 48% of the vote amid endorsements from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, while David Jolly, a former Republican who switched parties, won the Democratic primary by a wide margin. General-election surveys from mid-to-late September, including Stetson University showing Donalds at 51% to Jolly's 39%, reflect consistent Republican advantages tied to statewide fundamentals, though some individual polls have narrowed the gap to statistical ties. Donalds maintains a substantial fundraising lead, and the state's 2024 presidential results reinforce expectations of continued GOP control absent major shifts before November 3.