Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability stems from its incumbency advantage and leads in recent polls ahead of the June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections under proportional representation with a 4% threshold for parties. An IRI survey from February (published March 6) showed Civil Contract at 24-29% among likely voters, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, and Armenia Alliance at 3%, with 30% undecided—many modeled to favor the incumbent in EVN Report's analysis projecting 40.5%. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent assertion of victory, fragmented opposition lacking consolidation, and no major scandals reinforce positioning, though large undecideds and potential alliances could influence the outcome determining National Assembly control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于公民契约党 84%
亚美尼亚联盟 13%
光明亚美尼亚党 4.1%
我有荣耀联盟 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
公民契约党
84%
亚美尼亚联盟
13%
光明亚美尼亚党
4%
我有荣耀联盟
2%
亚美尼亚全国大会
<1%
繁荣亚美尼亚党
<1%
Hanrapetutyun党
<1%
奥里纳茨·耶尔基尔
<1%
传统党
<1%
公民契约党 84%
亚美尼亚联盟 13%
光明亚美尼亚党 4.1%
我有荣耀联盟 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
公民契约党
$0 交易量
84%
亚美尼亚联盟
$0 交易量
13%
光明亚美尼亚党
$0 交易量
4%
我有荣耀联盟
$0 交易量
2%
亚美尼亚全国大会
$0 交易量
<1%
繁荣亚美尼亚党
$0 交易量
<1%
Hanrapetutyun党
$0 交易量
<1%
奥里纳茨·耶尔基尔
$0 交易量
<1%
传统党
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability stems from its incumbency advantage and leads in recent polls ahead of the June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections under proportional representation with a 4% threshold for parties. An IRI survey from February (published March 6) showed Civil Contract at 24-29% among likely voters, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, and Armenia Alliance at 3%, with 30% undecided—many modeled to favor the incumbent in EVN Report's analysis projecting 40.5%. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent assertion of victory, fragmented opposition lacking consolidation, and no major scandals reinforce positioning, though large undecideds and potential alliances could influence the outcome determining National Assembly control.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
市场开放时间： Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 7, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability stems from its incumbency advantage and leads in recent polls ahead of the June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections under proportional representation with a 4% threshold for parties. An IRI survey from February (published March 6) showed Civil Contract at 24-29% among likely voters, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, and Armenia Alliance at 3%, with 30% undecided—many modeled to favor the incumbent in EVN Report's analysis projecting 40.5%. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent assertion of victory, fragmented opposition lacking consolidation, and no major scandals reinforce positioning, though large undecideds and potential alliances could influence the outcome determining National Assembly control.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 7, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability stems from its incumbency advantage and leads in recent polls ahead of the June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections under proportional representation with a 4% threshold for parties. An IRI survey from February (published March 6) showed Civil Contract at 24-29% among likely voters, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, and Armenia Alliance at 3%, with 30% undecided—many modeled to favor the incumbent in EVN Report's analysis projecting 40.5%. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent assertion of victory, fragmented opposition lacking consolidation, and no major scandals reinforce positioning, though large undecideds and potential alliances could influence the outcome determining National Assembly control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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