Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, citing lack of support

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills, the two-term governor and establishment favorite, announced her withdrawal from the Democratic Senate primary due to insufficient fundraising and enthusiasm, clearing the path for Graham Platner's nomination.

Graham Platner declared presumptive Democratic nominee at Maine Democratic Party Convention

Graham Platner rises to 99%1%

At the party convention, Platner was acknowledged as the presumptive nominee following Mills' withdrawal, receiving endorsements and uniting many Democrats despite some reservations, solidifying his status and market dominance.

Janet Mills drops out of Maine Democratic Senate primary citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign due to insufficient fundraising and lack of enthusiasm, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic front-runner.

Graham Platner casts ballot on first day of Maine early voting, pitches energy plan

Platner cast his ballot early and outlined his energy policy, signaling campaign momentum and readiness for the general election, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the primary market.

Janet Mills abandons Senate campaign amid fundraising struggles

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills, the two-term governor and establishment favorite, officially ended her Senate campaign due to insufficient fundraising and lack of voter enthusiasm, marking a significant defeat and solidifying Graham Platner's position as the frontrunner.

Graham Platner surges to near-certain frontrunner status in Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Market prices surged to nearly 99% for Graham Platner as he became the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic primary, reflecting broad voter support and the collapse of other candidates' chances, including Janet Mills who dropped to near zero.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate bid, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Mills announced she could not continue her Senate campaign due to fundraising shortfalls, effectively clearing the field for Platner. The announcement caused Platner’s price to jump from 93% to 99% and Mills’s price to plunge from 7% to 1%.

Graham Platner withdraws from primary debates to focus on general election

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

Platner announced he would skip upcoming Democratic primary debates to concentrate on the general election against Republican Susan Collins, signaling confidence in his nomination and stabilizing his market price near certainty.

Graham Platner skips primary debates after Mills exits

Platner announced he would skip the upcoming primary debates, signaling confidence after Mills’ exit; the market price remained at 99 %, confirming the decisive lead.

Graham Platner withdraws from Democratic primary debates, focusing on general election

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Following Mills' exit, Platner dropped out of upcoming primary debates to concentrate on the November general election against Republican Susan Collins, signaling his confidence as the presumptive Democratic nominee and consolidating his market position near 99%.

Platner receives Maine AFL‑CIO endorsement on May Day

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Platner accepted the Maine AFL‑CIO endorsement on May 1, pushing his market price from 92% to a peak of 99%, confirming his status as presumptive nominee.

Platner drops out of US Senate primary debates

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Platner announced he would skip primary debates, focusing on the general election, which kept his price near the top.

Janet Mills suspends Senate campaign citing lack of funds

Graham Platner surges to 99%91%

Janet Mills announced she was suspending her campaign due to insufficient fundraising and inability to compete with Platner's momentum, effectively clearing the path for Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Maine Governor Janet Mills Drops US Senate Bid Citing Lack of Funds

Graham Platner jumps to 99%9%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, citing insufficient campaign funds to compete effectively. Her exit cleared the path for Graham Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee, causing a sharp increase in his market odds.

Governor Janet Mills drops out of Maine Democratic Senate primary

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign citing lack of funds, effectively conceding the primary to Platner and clearing his path to the nomination.

Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, clearing way for Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

Maine Governor Janet Mills announced she was ending her Senate bid due to financial resource constraints and trailing in polls, effectively handing the Democratic nomination to Graham Platner. This announcement caused a sharp increase in Platner's market price and a collapse in Mills' chances.

Janet Mills drops out of Maine Democratic Senate primary citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 0%9%

Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign due to insufficient campaign funds, effectively conceding the primary to Graham Platner. This led to a sharp drop in Mills' market price to near zero and a corresponding rise in Platner's price to near certainty.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills drops out of Senate race

Mills announced she was suspending her Senate campaign, effectively clearing the field. Platner’s price stayed at 99 % (no change), while all other candidates fell to 0 %, confirming the market’s expectation.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills drops Democratic Senate bid

Janet Mills drops to 1%9%

Mills announced she was dropping out of the Senate race, causing her market price to collapse from ~10% to ~1% within days.

Maine Gov. Mills drops Democratic US Senate bid

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Mills announced she was dropping out of the Senate race due to lack of funds, causing her market price to collapse to 1% and cementing Platner’s dominance.

Governor Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign citing lack of funds

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Janet Mills dropped out of the Senate primary race due to insufficient campaign funds, leaving Graham Platner as the presumptive Democratic nominee and causing his market price to surge.

Maine Governor Janet Mills drops out of U.S. Senate race citing lack of campaign funds

Janet Mills drops to 0%9%

Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign due to insufficient financial resources, effectively conceding the Democratic primary to Graham Platner. This announcement caused a sharp decline in Mills' market price and a surge for Platner as the presumptive nominee.

Graham Platner effectively declared Democratic primary winner after Mills withdrawal

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Following Mills' withdrawal, Platner's campaign declared victory in the Democratic primary, with polls and endorsements confirming his status as the presumptive nominee.

Graham Platner reaches peak market confidence as Maine Senate primary nears

Graham Platner jumps to 100%7%

As the primary election approached, Graham Platner's support surged to near certainty, reflecting strong voter enthusiasm and the absence of significant competition following Mills' withdrawal. This was the highest market confidence point for Platner.

Janet Mills ends U.S. Senate campaign, clearing way for Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Governor Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign citing lack of financial resources, effectively handing the Democratic nomination to Graham Platner. This decisive event caused Platner's market price to surge to near certainty and Mills' price to collapse.

Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, citing financial constraints

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills announced she was suspending her campaign for the U.S. Senate due to lack of financial resources, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic nominee.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills ended her Senate campaign citing financial resource constraints, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to secure the Democratic nomination.

Gov. Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, clearing way for Platner

Janet Mills drops to 1%8%

Mills announced suspension of her Senate campaign citing financial reasons after trailing Platner in polls and fundraising, effectively making Platner the presumptive Democratic nominee and causing a sharp market shift.

Platner dubbed ‘presumptive nominee’ at Maine Democratic convention

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Following Mills’ withdrawal, Platner was proclaimed “presumptive nominee” at the Democratic Party convention; the market’s price hovered around 99% thereafter.

Maine legislature passes data center moratorium bill, Gov. Mills supports

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Maine's Democratic-controlled legislature passed a moratorium on large data centers, a significant policy move supported by Gov. Janet Mills. While not directly related to the Senate primary, this event highlighted Mills' policy positions and may have influenced voter perceptions during the campaign period.

Graham Platner surges to near-certain frontrunner status in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 93%9%

As the primary approached, Graham Platner's support surged dramatically, reaching a peak market price of 93% and signaling overwhelming voter confidence in his candidacy over Janet Mills and other contenders. This surge reflected the consolidation of anti-establishment support behind Platner.

Graham Platner surges to near-certain frontrunner status in Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 93%17%

As the primary approached, Graham Platner's support surged dramatically, reflecting growing voter confidence in his candidacy and the continued decline of other candidates, including Janet Mills. This surge was likely influenced by ongoing voter dissatisfaction with establishment figures and Platner's grassroots appeal.

Maine Legislature passes year‑long moratorium on large data centers, sends bill to Gov. Mills

Graham Platner jumps to 93%11%

Lawmakers approved a bill freezing approvals for energy‑intensive data centers for over a year, a move seen as a win for grassroots activists and a signal of anti‑establishment sentiment that boosted Platner’s outsider appeal. The action coincided with Platner’s price rise from 82% to 93% over the following weeks.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine primary

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Warren’s endorsement at a Portland rally gave Platner a boost; the market moved from 92 % on Apr 18 to 99 % by May 3.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner surges to 93%18%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Platner at a major campaign rally, energizing his supporters and signaling strong progressive establishment backing. This endorsement further solidified Platner's front-runner status and contributed to his market price surge.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner surges to 91%16%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner at a rally in Portland, Maine, energizing his campaign and signaling strong progressive establishment support, which boosted his market standing significantly.

Graham Platner holds large rallies and gains progressive endorsements

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Platner continued to build momentum with large campaign events and endorsements from progressive leaders, solidifying his lead over Mills in polls and fundraising.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 92%14%

Senator Warren publicly endorsed Platner at a rally, boosting his progressive credentials and consolidating support from the left wing of the Democratic Party, further increasing his market odds.

Senator Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner surges to 93%18%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner at a rally in Portland, Maine, energizing his campaign and signaling strong progressive support. This endorsement, alongside Bernie Sanders' backing, contrasted with establishment support for Janet Mills and helped solidify Platner's front-runner status.

Maine legislature passes data center moratorium bill amid community backlash

Janet Mills plunges to 9%15%

Maine lawmakers approved a yearlong moratorium on large data centers, reflecting growing political opposition to tech projects due to concerns about energy use and community impact. Governor Janet Mills, running for Senate, faced this contentious issue, which may have influenced voter perceptions and the primary race.

Polls show Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 78%11%

Multiple polls in early 2026 showed Platner leading Mills by significant margins, reflecting growing support for Platner and weakening Mills' position, influencing market prices accordingly.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 90%17%

Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Platner, aligning him with prominent progressive figures and boosting his campaign momentum and market odds.

Poll shows Graham Platner leads Janet Mills by double digits in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 68%18%

An Emerson College poll showed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, reinforcing his position as the front-runner despite Mills' attack ads highlighting his past comments.

Senator Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Senator Warren publicly endorsed Platner, praising his combat veteran background and progressive platform, boosting his campaign momentum and market confidence in his nomination chances.

Janet Mills launches attack ad targeting Graham Platner's past comments

Janet Mills jumps to 43%9%

Governor Janet Mills released a confrontational attack ad focusing on controversial past online comments by Graham Platner, aiming to energize women voters and challenge Platner's candidacy. This intensified the primary contest but did not ultimately reverse Platner's polling lead.

Janet Mills launches attack ad targeting Graham Platner's past comments on women

Graham Platner drops to 59%8%

Mills' campaign released a confrontational ad focusing on Platner's 2013 Reddit post about women and sexual assault, aiming to energize women voters and challenge Platner's candidacy. This attack highlighted gender dynamics in the primary and temporarily pressured Platner's support.

Poll shows Graham Platner holds significant lead over Janet Mills in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 66%10%

An Emerson College Polling survey revealed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, reinforcing his frontrunner status despite Mills' attack ads highlighting his past controversial comments. This poll further diminished Mills' chances and boosted Platner's market position.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by double digits in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 62%6%

An Emerson College poll showed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, confirming his strong front-runner status and increasing market confidence in his eventual nomination.

Maine governor challenges federal immigration enforcement amid rising community fear

Janet Mills drops to 22%12%

Governor Janet Mills publicly demanded warrants and transparency from federal immigration officials amid widespread fear in immigrant communities due to ICE operations. This stance likely affected her support in the Democratic primary, as voters reacted to the immigration enforcement climate.

Platner wins endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders

Graham Platner surges to 99%33%

Senator Sanders publicly endorsed Platner, cementing his anti‑establishment credentials and driving his price close to certainty.

Chellie Pingree joins Minnesota event condemning Trump’s ICE operations

Chellie Pingree plunges to 0%50%

Pingree participated in a field hearing criticizing aggressive immigration enforcement, highlighting her active role in national Democratic issues, though this had limited direct impact on the Senate primary market.

Senator Bernie Sanders endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 67%8%

Senator Bernie Sanders, a prominent democratic socialist, publicly endorsed Graham Platner, boosting his credibility and appeal among anti-establishment Democratic voters. This endorsement contributed to Platner's rising market price and the decline of establishment candidates.

Department of Homeland Security launches immigration enforcement operation in Maine

Janet Mills dips to 33%3%

The DHS initiated 'Operation Catch of the Day' targeting criminal illegal migrants in Maine, leading to increased immigration enforcement activity. Governor Janet Mills publicly criticized the operation, highlighting tensions that may have influenced voter sentiment and the Senate primary dynamics.

DHS launches 'Operation Catch of the Day' immigration enforcement in Maine

Janet Mills dips to 33%3%

The Department of Homeland Security launched a federal immigration enforcement operation in Maine, targeting criminal illegal migrants. Governor Janet Mills criticized the operation, highlighting tensions between her administration and federal authorities. This event underscored Mills' political challenges and may have influenced voter sentiment in the Senate primary.

Janet Mills announces withdrawal from Maine Senate race

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills officially ended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, citing lack of sufficient support and fundraising, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic nominee. This announcement caused Mills' market price to plummet to near zero and Platner's price to surge.

Maine Governor Mills declines to sign data‑center moratorium

Graham Platner surges to 92%34%

Mills’ decision not to sign the moratorium signaled a split with the legislature, further isolating her and boosting Platner’s momentum.

Maine Democratic Party removes Mills from primary ballot

Janet Mills plunges to 0%36%

Following her withdrawal, the state party officially struck Mills’ name from the ballot, effectively ending her campaign and solidifying Platner’s lead.

Polymarket odds show Platner leading at 82% in Maine primary

Graham Platner jumps to 68%13%

Polymarket’s prediction‑market odds rose to 82% for Platner, coinciding with a market move from the high‑50s to the low‑70s in early December.

Senator Bernie Sanders endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 77%17%

Sanders publicly backs Platner, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his price higher.

Platner’s fundraising surge eclipses all other Democratic primary candidates in Maine

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Financial disclosures showed Platner raising significantly more cash than any other Democratic contender, reinforcing voter confidence and pushing his market price close to the 90% threshold while other candidates fell to single‑digit levels.

Maine Democratic Party releases fundraising report showing Platner outpacing Mills

Graham Platner surges to 78%17%

A state‑party filing revealed Platner had raised significantly more money than Mills, confirming his growing viability and pushing his market price higher.

ICE launches intensified enforcement operation in Maine

Graham Platner jumps to 76%7%

The sudden increase in ICE arrests and the controversy over undercover license plates heightened anti‑Trump sentiment in the state, benefiting anti‑establishment candidates like Platner and further depressing other contenders.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate primary, boosting Platner's chances

Janet Mills plunges to 1%27%

Janet Mills officially ended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, citing insufficient support and fundraising. This withdrawal solidified Graham Platner's position as the leading candidate in the Democratic primary, reflected by a significant increase in his market price and a collapse in Mills' chances.

Janet Mills announces she will not seek re‑election as governor

Janet Mills plunges to 9%21%

Mills confirmed she would not run for a third term as governor, removing any fallback option and further eroding her political base in the Senate race.

Platner apologizes for past sexist comments

Graham Platner jumps to 60%11%

Platner publicly apologized for his past comments, stabilizing his market price after a dip.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, endorsing Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 69%7%

Janet Mills officially ended her Senate campaign due to lack of fundraising and support, marking a significant victory for Graham Platner and signaling a rejection of establishment candidates by Maine Democratic voters. This event caused a sharp increase in Platner's market price and a collapse in Mills' chances.

Schumer’s recruitment of Platner criticized by moderate Democrats

Graham Platner surges to 72%27%

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s backing of Platner drew backlash from moderate Democrats, reinforcing the narrative of an anti‑establishment wave and further rallying grassroots support for Platner.

Maine Legislature passes year‑long moratorium on large data centers

Graham Platner jumps to 69%7%

The bipartisan bill, sent to Gov. Mills for signature, highlighted growing anti‑establishment sentiment and environmental concerns, further eroding support for traditional candidates and nudging voters toward Platner’s outsider appeal.

Jordan Wood drops out of Senate race to run for U.S. House seat

Jordan Wood plunges to 4%46%

Jordan Wood, initially a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, withdrew from the Senate primary to run for the open U.S. House seat in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, reducing competition in the Senate primary.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorses Graham Platner amid polling lead

Graham Platner surges to 63%15%

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Graham Platner, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate in the Maine Democratic Senate primary despite past controversies. This endorsement helped Platner maintain and grow his polling lead over Janet Mills and others.

Platner leads Maine Democratic Senate primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

A PCCC‑commissioned poll released in early November showed Platner at 58% versus 38% for Mills, a 20‑point lead that aligns with the market’s jump from the low‑30s to the mid‑50s in late October and early November.

Progressive candidate Graham Platner leads Maine Senate Democratic primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 63%29%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points despite recent controversies, signaling strong grassroots support and a shift in voter sentiment favoring Platner's insurgent campaign.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Maine Democratic Senate primary by 20 points

Graham Platner jumps to 42%8%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points despite recent controversies, indicating strong grassroots support and a commanding lead in the primary race.

Progressive Graham Platner leads Maine Senate Democratic primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 56%22%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points despite past controversies, signaling strong grassroots support and shifting market confidence in his candidacy.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 63%15%

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Platner, reinforcing his progressive insurgent image and boosting his campaign momentum. This endorsement helped Platner maintain and grow his lead in the Democratic primary market.

Poll Shows Graham Platner Leading Maine Democratic Senate Primary by 20 Points

Graham Platner surges to 48%18%

A new poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points in the Democratic primary, signaling strong grassroots support despite past controversies. This poll reinforced Platner's position as the front-runner and influenced market confidence in his chances.

Emerson College poll shows Platner up 27 points over Mills

Graham Platner jumps to 68%13%

Emerson College released a poll on Nov 4 2025 with Platner 55 % vs. Mills 28 %. The market rose sharply to 68 % on Nov 29, reflecting reinforcement of the lead.

Mills releases attack ad targeting Platner’s past comments

Janet Mills drops to 49%14%

Mills released an attack ad highlighting Platner’s past sexist remarks, causing her market price to fall sharply.

Maine Democratic Party officially announces Graham Platner as primary frontrunner

Graham Platner jumps to 78%8%

Following Mills’ exit and the data‑center vote, the state Democratic Party formally endorsed Platner, cementing his status as the leading candidate and sending his market price to near‑record levels.

Progressive poll gives Graham Platner 20‑point lead over Janet Mills

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

The PCCC‑sponsored poll released Oct 29 2025 showed Platner at 58 % vs. Mills 38 %, the first clear double‑digit lead. The market jumped from 34 % on Sep 15 to 55 % on Oct 10 as traders incorporated the new data.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, boosting Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 48%20%

Governor Janet Mills officially ended her Senate campaign due to insufficient support and fundraising, solidifying Graham Platner's position as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. This event caused a sharp decline in Mills' market price and a corresponding rise for Platner.

CNN investigation reveals Graham Platner knew about Nazi symbolism of his tattoo years ago

Graham Platner rises to 57%2%

CNN uncovered evidence that Platner was aware of and defended the Nazi-linked Totenkopf tattoo for years, contradicting his claims of recent ignorance. This controversy raised questions about his character and affected his campaign's public perception.

Anti‑establishment wave boosts Graham Platner’s primary odds in Maine

Graham Platner surges to 62%23%

Following Mills’ exit, Democratic voters embraced the anti‑establishment sentiment, rallying behind Platner. The surge reflected a broader rejection of party leadership and drove Platner’s price from the mid‑30s to near‑60 percent within weeks.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate campaign, clearing the field for Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 56%22%

Maine Governor Janet Mills announced she was ending her Senate bid, citing insufficient fundraising and enthusiasm. The move removed the establishment favorite, propelling outsider Graham Platner to the forefront and causing a sharp rise in his market price.

Graham Platner emerges as front‑runner for Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 99%65%

Following Mills’ withdrawal, oyster farmer Graham Platner became the clear favorite, gaining endorsements and media attention. The market reflected this with his price climbing sharply from the low‑30s to the high‑90s over the following weeks.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate campaign in Maine

Janet Mills plunges to 1%49%

Maine’s two‑term Democratic governor announced she was ending her Senate bid, citing fundraising shortfalls and lack of enthusiasm. The exit removed her as a contender, causing her market price to plunge and boosting Graham Platner’s odds as the remaining major candidate.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate bid, ending her primary campaign

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

Mills announced she could not raise enough funds to stay in the race, effectively removing the establishment favorite and leaving Graham Platner as the sole major contender, driving Platner’s price from the mid‑30s to near‑100%.

Maine Legislature passes data‑center moratorium bill

Graham Platner jumps to 64%11%

The Democratic‑controlled Legislature approved a year‑long freeze on large data‑center projects, sending the bill to Gov. Mills. The controversy over tech development highlighted local economic concerns and boosted Platner’s outsider appeal.

Janet Mills briefly surges in Maine Senate primary polling

Janet Mills surges to 70%34%

Janet Mills experienced a temporary increase in support, reaching a peak of 70%, likely due to establishment backing and campaign efforts, but this was short-lived as Platner's support rebounded.

Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate run, endorsed by Democratic establishment

Janet Mills surges to 66%24%

Janet Mills officially entered the Senate race in October 2025 with backing from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, initially boosting her market odds.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine rally

Graham Platner jumps to 73%12%

Warren’s endorsement of Platner at a rally was reported, causing a sharp rise in Platner’s market price.

Mills rallies supporters amid rising attack ads

Janet Mills plunges to 21%44%

Mills’ campaign released a teaser video defending her record after a surge in negative ads; the market slid sharply for her from ~65% to ~20% over the next two weeks.

Graham Platner apologizes for controversial past social media posts

Graham Platner plunges to 29%26%

Platner acknowledged and apologized for past Reddit posts and a tattoo resembling Nazi symbolism, which sparked controversy and negative campaign ads from Mills. Despite this, his support remained resilient, reflecting in market fluctuations.

Federal ICE operation begins in Maine, targeting 1,400 illegal immigrants

Graham Platner jumps to 70%8%

The Department of Homeland Security launched an ICE sweep in Maine, heightening anti‑Trump sentiment and reinforcing Democratic voters’ preference for outsider candidates, pushing Platner’s price higher and dragging down the establishment‑linked candidates.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 34 points despite controversies

Graham Platner jumps to 58%8%

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted from Oct 16-21 showed Platner leading Mills 58% to 24% among likely Democratic primary voters, despite negative revelations about Platner's past online posts and tattoo. This poll solidified Platner's front-runner status and caused a significant price increase for him in the market.

Controversy over Graham Platner's past social media posts emerges

Graham Platner plunges to 31%36%

Revelations about Platner's past sexist and inflammatory online comments surfaced, leading to negative campaign ads from Mills but not significantly hurting Platner's polling.

Graham Platner faces controversies but maintains polling lead

Graham Platner jumps to 43%9%

Despite controversies over past social media posts and a tattoo linked to Nazi symbolism, Platner remained the polling front-runner, reflecting strong grassroots support and progressive endorsements, which influenced market prices upward for him.

Controversy emerges over Graham Platner's past sexist comments and Nazi-like tattoo

Graham Platner plunges to 31%35%

Reports surfaced about Platner's past Reddit posts with sexist remarks and a skull-and-crossbones tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, causing a media stir. Despite the backlash, Platner apologized and covered the tattoo, but the controversy initially affected his polling.

University of New Hampshire poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 43%9%

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted mid-October 2025 showed Platner leading Mills by a significant margin despite recent controversies, boosting market confidence in Platner's chances.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, citing lack of support

Graham Platner surges to 46%21%

Janet Mills, the two-term governor and establishment favorite, announced her withdrawal from the Democratic Senate primary due to insufficient fundraising and enthusiasm, marking a major upset and boosting Graham Platner's chances significantly.

Dan Kleban suspends Senate campaign and endorses Janet Mills

Following Mills' entry, Dan Kleban dropped out of the Senate race and endorsed her, consolidating establishment support and impacting the market by reducing competition for Mills.

Gov. Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate campaign, shaking up Maine race

Janet Mills dips to 48%2%

Janet Mills officially entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race, becoming the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate and prompting other contenders like Dan Kleban to suspend their campaigns and endorse her. This shifted market dynamics, initially boosting Mills' chances.

Progressive Change poll gives Graham Platner 20‑point lead over Janet Mills

Graham Platner surges to 58%24%

A poll commissioned by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points (58% to 38%). The large margin triggered a sharp rise in Platner’s market price from the low‑30s to the mid‑50s percent range.

Maine Legislature passes year‑long data‑center moratorium

Graham Platner jumps to 62%6%

Lawmakers approved a statewide freeze on large data‑center projects, a move seen as a protest against tech‑industry influence and a boost for anti‑establishment candidates like Platner, while further eroding support for establishment figures such as Mills.

Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate campaign with strong party backing

Maine Governor Janet Mills officially entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race with support from Senate Democratic leaders, raising $1 million in the first 24 hours and shaking up the Democratic primary field. This announcement caused shifts in the market as Mills was seen as the establishment favorite.

Jared Golden ends Senate campaign

Jared Golden drops to 0%11%

Golden withdrew from the race, causing his price to fall to zero.

Troy Jackson exits Maine Senate primary

Troy Jackson dips to 0%3%

Jackson announced his withdrawal, pushing his market price to zero.

Janet Mills announces withdrawal from Maine Senate race

Graham Platner surges to 59%25%

Governor Janet Mills ended her U.S. Senate campaign after failing to generate sufficient fundraising and enthusiasm to compete against Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political newcomer. This announcement significantly boosted Platner's chances, reflected in a sharp market price increase for his candidacy and a collapse in Mills' support.

Janet Mills abandons Maine Senate bid, citing fundraising and enthusiasm shortfalls

Graham Platner plunges to 26%34%

Governor Janet Mills ended her campaign for the U.S. Senate after failing to generate sufficient fundraising and voter enthusiasm, a major blow to the Democratic establishment and a key turning point that boosted outsider Graham Platner's chances significantly.

Graham Platner gains momentum as anti-establishment candidate in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 60%21%

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no prior elected office experience, began gaining significant support against the establishment-backed Governor Janet Mills, reflecting a growing anti-establishment mood among Maine Democrats. This shift caused Platner's market price to rise sharply, signaling increased confidence in his primary victory.

Jordan Wood suspends Senate campaign

Jordan Wood plunges to 0%19%

Wood withdrew, eliminating his share of the race and driving his price to zero.

Platner leads Maine Senate Primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 61%27%

A poll released by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Mills by 20 points, pushing Platner’s price upward.

Chellie Pingree ends Senate bid

Chellie Pingree dips to 0%3%

Pingree formally ended her campaign, sending her price to zero.

Dan Kleban drops out of Senate primary

Dan Kleban plunges to 0%15%

Kleban announced he would not continue his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.

Gov. Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Democratic Senate primary, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 59%14%

Mills announced she could not raise sufficient funds and withdrew, effectively clearing the field for Platner and causing his support to surge as voters coalesced around the anti‑establishment candidate.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate campaign, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner drops to 56%12%

Maine’s two‑term Democratic governor announced she could not raise enough funds to stay in the Senate race and withdrew, effectively handing the primary to newcomer oyster farmer Graham Platner. The announcement triggered a sharp rise in Platner’s market price and a plunge for Mills and all other candidates.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons Senate campaign, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 60%18%

Maine’s two‑term Democratic governor announced she could not raise enough funds and withdrew, throwing her support behind oyster farmer Graham Platner. The move eliminated the establishment favorite and sent Platner’s market price sharply upward.

Early poll shows Platner leading primary field

Graham Platner jumps to 42%8%

A regional poll released by a local news outlet placed Platner ahead of Mills and other candidates, prompting early price gains for Platner and declines for the rest.

Graham Platner gains momentum as anti-establishment candidate in Maine Senate race

Graham Platner surges to 53%19%

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no prior elected office, began gaining significant support as Democratic voters in Maine showed a preference for anti-establishment candidates, challenging the party's national leadership's preferred candidate, Janet Mills. This shift caused Platner's market price to rise sharply and Mills' to decline.

Graham Platner gains early momentum as anti-establishment candidate in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 53%19%

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no prior elected office experience, began gaining traction among Democratic voters frustrated with party establishment, signaling a shift in the primary race dynamics.

Market opens for Maine Democratic Senate Primary

Initial market opening with no specific news; baseline prices set.