Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a structural edge in Republican-leaning Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932, yet recent polling averages show the race within a few points of a tie after Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton secured his primary nomination with strong name recognition from his role leading the state's largest United Methodist congregation. Economic pressures in agriculture, including fuel and fertilizer costs plus beef trade dynamics, have tightened the contest, prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to rate it Lean Republican as of late September 2026. Hamilton's fundraising and lower unfavorable ratings in some surveys have narrowed the gap, while Marshall benefits from incumbency and party infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive environment and the potential for late-cycle shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$177,574 Vol.
$177,574 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
69%
Adam Hamilton (D)
31%
$177,574 Vol.
$177,574 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$68,670 Vol.
69%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$108,904 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a structural edge in Republican-leaning Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932, yet recent polling averages show the race within a few points of a tie after Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton secured his primary nomination with strong name recognition from his role leading the state's largest United Methodist congregation. Economic pressures in agriculture, including fuel and fertilizer costs plus beef trade dynamics, have tightened the contest, prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to rate it Lean Republican as of late September 2026. Hamilton's fundraising and lower unfavorable ratings in some surveys have narrowed the gap, while Marshall benefits from incumbency and party infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive environment and the potential for late-cycle shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$177,574End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a structural edge in Republican-leaning Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932, yet recent polling averages show the race within a few points of a tie after Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton secured his primary nomination with strong name recognition from his role leading the state's largest United Methodist congregation. Economic pressures in agriculture, including fuel and fertilizer costs plus beef trade dynamics, have tightened the contest, prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to rate it Lean Republican as of late September 2026. Hamilton's fundraising and lower unfavorable ratings in some surveys have narrowed the gap, while Marshall benefits from incumbency and party infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive environment and the potential for late-cycle shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$177,574End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a structural edge in Republican-leaning Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932, yet recent polling averages show the race within a few points of a tie after Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton secured his primary nomination with strong name recognition from his role leading the state's largest United Methodist congregation. Economic pressures in agriculture, including fuel and fertilizer costs plus beef trade dynamics, have tightened the contest, prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to rate it Lean Republican as of late September 2026. Hamilton's fundraising and lower unfavorable ratings in some surveys have narrowed the gap, while Marshall benefits from incumbency and party infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive environment and the potential for late-cycle shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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