Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, in the November 3, 2026, Kansas Senate election. Recent polling averages show a narrow contest, with Marshall ahead by roughly one point, though some surveys indicate a statistical tie or slight Hamilton lead amid high undecided shares. Marshall's favorability has declined due to reports on his prior medical practice involving patient debt collection lawsuits, contributing to a more competitive environment than Kansas's Republican tilt would typically suggest. Hamilton's primary win and record fundraising have boosted Democratic visibility, while national midterm dynamics and endorsements like Vice President Vance's appearance for Marshall factor into assessments. Trader consensus reflects Marshall's structural advantages in the state but accounts for these tightening indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$182,752 Vol.
$182,752 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
70%
Adam Hamilton (D)
31%
$182,752 Vol.
$182,752 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$73,347 Vol.
70%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$109,406 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, in the November 3, 2026, Kansas Senate election. Recent polling averages show a narrow contest, with Marshall ahead by roughly one point, though some surveys indicate a statistical tie or slight Hamilton lead amid high undecided shares. Marshall's favorability has declined due to reports on his prior medical practice involving patient debt collection lawsuits, contributing to a more competitive environment than Kansas's Republican tilt would typically suggest. Hamilton's primary win and record fundraising have boosted Democratic visibility, while national midterm dynamics and endorsements like Vice President Vance's appearance for Marshall factor into assessments. Trader consensus reflects Marshall's structural advantages in the state but accounts for these tightening indicators.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$182,752End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, in the November 3, 2026, Kansas Senate election. Recent polling averages show a narrow contest, with Marshall ahead by roughly one point, though some surveys indicate a statistical tie or slight Hamilton lead amid high undecided shares. Marshall's favorability has declined due to reports on his prior medical practice involving patient debt collection lawsuits, contributing to a more competitive environment than Kansas's Republican tilt would typically suggest. Hamilton's primary win and record fundraising have boosted Democratic visibility, while national midterm dynamics and endorsements like Vice President Vance's appearance for Marshall factor into assessments. Trader consensus reflects Marshall's structural advantages in the state but accounts for these tightening indicators.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$182,752End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, in the November 3, 2026, Kansas Senate election. Recent polling averages show a narrow contest, with Marshall ahead by roughly one point, though some surveys indicate a statistical tie or slight Hamilton lead amid high undecided shares. Marshall's favorability has declined due to reports on his prior medical practice involving patient debt collection lawsuits, contributing to a more competitive environment than Kansas's Republican tilt would typically suggest. Hamilton's primary win and record fundraising have boosted Democratic visibility, while national midterm dynamics and endorsements like Vice President Vance's appearance for Marshall factor into assessments. Trader consensus reflects Marshall's structural advantages in the state but accounts for these tightening indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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