Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a clear edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflecting Kansas’s longstanding Republican tilt and his established position since 2021, even as recent polling shows a tighter contest. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has narrowed the gap through strong fundraising, appeal to independents and suburban voters in the Kansas City area, and criticism of Marshall’s record on economic pressures such as fuel and fertilizer costs. A September Emerson College poll showed Hamilton narrowly ahead, prompting the Cook Political Report to move the race to Lean Republican, while other forecasters rate it Likely Republican or Tossup. National midterm dynamics and Marshall’s elevated unfavorable ratings have sustained competitiveness, though the state’s partisan fundamentals continue to favor the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$178,392 Vol.
$178,392 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
69%
Adam Hamilton (D)
32%
$178,392 Vol.
$178,392 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$69,388 Vol.
69%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$109,004 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a clear edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflecting Kansas’s longstanding Republican tilt and his established position since 2021, even as recent polling shows a tighter contest. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has narrowed the gap through strong fundraising, appeal to independents and suburban voters in the Kansas City area, and criticism of Marshall’s record on economic pressures such as fuel and fertilizer costs. A September Emerson College poll showed Hamilton narrowly ahead, prompting the Cook Political Report to move the race to Lean Republican, while other forecasters rate it Likely Republican or Tossup. National midterm dynamics and Marshall’s elevated unfavorable ratings have sustained competitiveness, though the state’s partisan fundamentals continue to favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$178,392End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a clear edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflecting Kansas’s longstanding Republican tilt and his established position since 2021, even as recent polling shows a tighter contest. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has narrowed the gap through strong fundraising, appeal to independents and suburban voters in the Kansas City area, and criticism of Marshall’s record on economic pressures such as fuel and fertilizer costs. A September Emerson College poll showed Hamilton narrowly ahead, prompting the Cook Political Report to move the race to Lean Republican, while other forecasters rate it Likely Republican or Tossup. National midterm dynamics and Marshall’s elevated unfavorable ratings have sustained competitiveness, though the state’s partisan fundamentals continue to favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$178,392End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a clear edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflecting Kansas’s longstanding Republican tilt and his established position since 2021, even as recent polling shows a tighter contest. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has narrowed the gap through strong fundraising, appeal to independents and suburban voters in the Kansas City area, and criticism of Marshall’s record on economic pressures such as fuel and fertilizer costs. A September Emerson College poll showed Hamilton narrowly ahead, prompting the Cook Political Report to move the race to Lean Republican, while other forecasters rate it Likely Republican or Tossup. National midterm dynamics and Marshall’s elevated unfavorable ratings have sustained competitiveness, though the state’s partisan fundamentals continue to favor the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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