**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.** Recent polling shows a tightening race, with an Emerson College/Nexstar survey from mid-September giving Democrat Adam Hamilton a narrow 45-43 lead among likely voters, driven by his edge with independents, though an earlier co/efficient poll had Marshall ahead. Forecasting outlets largely rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing Marshall’s incumbency advantage and the state’s partisan lean. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor who won his primary decisively in August, has raised substantial funds and drawn attention for his moderate profile, but structural factors and historical precedent continue to underpin traders’ assessment of Marshall as the clear favorite ahead of the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$149,627 Vol.
$149,627 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
74%
Adam Hamilton (D)
27%
$149,627 Vol.
$149,627 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$57,395 Vol.
74%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$92,231 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.** Recent polling shows a tightening race, with an Emerson College/Nexstar survey from mid-September giving Democrat Adam Hamilton a narrow 45-43 lead among likely voters, driven by his edge with independents, though an earlier co/efficient poll had Marshall ahead. Forecasting outlets largely rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing Marshall’s incumbency advantage and the state’s partisan lean. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor who won his primary decisively in August, has raised substantial funds and drawn attention for his moderate profile, but structural factors and historical precedent continue to underpin traders’ assessment of Marshall as the clear favorite ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$149,627End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.** Recent polling shows a tightening race, with an Emerson College/Nexstar survey from mid-September giving Democrat Adam Hamilton a narrow 45-43 lead among likely voters, driven by his edge with independents, though an earlier co/efficient poll had Marshall ahead. Forecasting outlets largely rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing Marshall’s incumbency advantage and the state’s partisan lean. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor who won his primary decisively in August, has raised substantial funds and drawn attention for his moderate profile, but structural factors and historical precedent continue to underpin traders’ assessment of Marshall as the clear favorite ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$149,627End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.** Recent polling shows a tightening race, with an Emerson College/Nexstar survey from mid-September giving Democrat Adam Hamilton a narrow 45-43 lead among likely voters, driven by his edge with independents, though an earlier co/efficient poll had Marshall ahead. Forecasting outlets largely rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing Marshall’s incumbency advantage and the state’s partisan lean. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor who won his primary decisively in August, has raised substantial funds and drawn attention for his moderate profile, but structural factors and historical precedent continue to underpin traders’ assessment of Marshall as the clear favorite ahead of the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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