With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—led by veterans like Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—trader consensus favors 24–27 total non-runners at 25.5% implied probability, anticipating a handful more amid a record congressional retirement wave disproportionately hitting Republicans (36–37). The pace of Democratic announcements has slowed since January, with no new confirmations in the past month despite pressures from aging rosters (median retiring age around 67), mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for other offices. Higher bins like 32–35 (15.2%) hinge on potential cascades from vulnerable districts or leadership shifts, while lower outcomes gain if silence persists through spring filing deadlines, underscoring the market's sensitivity to upcoming primary season catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
26%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
7%
40+
13%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
10%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
26%
28–31
$0 Vol.
15%
32–35
$0 Vol.
15%
36–39
$0 Vol.
7%
40+
$0 Vol.
13%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—led by veterans like Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—trader consensus favors 24–27 total non-runners at 25.5% implied probability, anticipating a handful more amid a record congressional retirement wave disproportionately hitting Republicans (36–37). The pace of Democratic announcements has slowed since January, with no new confirmations in the past month despite pressures from aging rosters (median retiring age around 67), mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for other offices. Higher bins like 32–35 (15.2%) hinge on potential cascades from vulnerable districts or leadership shifts, while lower outcomes gain if silence persists through spring filing deadlines, underscoring the market's sensitivity to upcoming primary season catalysts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$6,927End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—led by veterans like Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—trader consensus favors 24–27 total non-runners at 25.5% implied probability, anticipating a handful more amid a record congressional retirement wave disproportionately hitting Republicans (36–37). The pace of Democratic announcements has slowed since January, with no new confirmations in the past month despite pressures from aging rosters (median retiring age around 67), mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for other offices. Higher bins like 32–35 (15.2%) hinge on potential cascades from vulnerable districts or leadership shifts, while lower outcomes gain if silence persists through spring filing deadlines, underscoring the market's sensitivity to upcoming primary season catalysts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,927End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—led by veterans like Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—trader consensus favors 24–27 total non-runners at 25.5% implied probability, anticipating a handful more amid a record congressional retirement wave disproportionately hitting Republicans (36–37). The pace of Democratic announcements has slowed since January, with no new confirmations in the past month despite pressures from aging rosters (median retiring age around 67), mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for other offices. Higher bins like 32–35 (15.2%) hinge on potential cascades from vulnerable districts or leadership shifts, while lower outcomes gain if silence persists through spring filing deadlines, underscoring the market's sensitivity to upcoming primary season catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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