Name: How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
Start: 2025-12-12T23:43:04.679289Z
End: 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z

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The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

20–23

28–31

36–39

24–27

32–35

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be less than 5?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the OR-05 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NH-02 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-19 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NH-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-03 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the FL-23 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NV-01 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat?

The 2026 midterm elections for US governorships are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

The market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors at the moment the final relevant certified results are reported.

A candidate's party will be determined by their official party registration at the time of the respective election; candidates without a party registration will not be counted toward either party for the purposes of this market.

This market will resolve based on the certified results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is certified.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all governor elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

<20
$4,012 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

20–23
$339 Vol.
43%
0123456789
%

24–27
$198 Vol.
28%
0123456789
%

28–31
$64 Vol.
7%

32–35
$633 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

36–39
$94 Vol.
5%

40+
$186 Vol.
8%

Market Context

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Rules

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Market Context

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

About

Related

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

<20$4,012 Vol.6%0123456789%buy Yes7¢buy No95¢

20–23$339 Vol.43%0123456789%buy Yes45¢buy No60¢

24–27$198 Vol.28%0123456789%buy Yes31¢buy No75¢

28–31$64 Vol.7%buy Yes8¢buy No94¢

32–35$633 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes3.0¢buy No99.0¢

36–39$94 Vol.5%buy Yes5¢buy No96¢

40+$186 Vol.8%buy Yes8¢buy No93¢

Market Context

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Rules

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Market Context

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

About

Related

<20
$4,012 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

20–23
$339 Vol.
43%
0123456789
%

24–27
$198 Vol.
28%
0123456789
%

28–31
$64 Vol.
7%

32–35
$633 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

36–39
$94 Vol.
5%

40+
$186 Vol.
8%