Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced retirements per Ballotpedia's March 27 tracker—up from earlier counts after January announcements by Reps. Steny Hoyer (Maryland) and Julia Brownley (California), both long-serving members citing age and new pursuits. This pace, amid record House turnover (57 total, 36 Republicans), signals trader expectations of 3–6 more exits from vulnerable districts or seniors before primary filing deadlines in spring. Higher bins like 32–35 differentiate on potential midterm pressures in GOP-held seats, while consolidation behind 24–27 hinges on slowing announcements absent redistricting shocks or leadership shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
30%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
6%
40+
13%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
10%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
30%
28–31
$0 Vol.
15%
32–35
$0 Vol.
15%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40+
$0 Vol.
13%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced retirements per Ballotpedia's March 27 tracker—up from earlier counts after January announcements by Reps. Steny Hoyer (Maryland) and Julia Brownley (California), both long-serving members citing age and new pursuits. This pace, amid record House turnover (57 total, 36 Republicans), signals trader expectations of 3–6 more exits from vulnerable districts or seniors before primary filing deadlines in spring. Higher bins like 32–35 differentiate on potential midterm pressures in GOP-held seats, while consolidation behind 24–27 hinges on slowing announcements absent redistricting shocks or leadership shifts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$6,927End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced retirements per Ballotpedia's March 27 tracker—up from earlier counts after January announcements by Reps. Steny Hoyer (Maryland) and Julia Brownley (California), both long-serving members citing age and new pursuits. This pace, amid record House turnover (57 total, 36 Republicans), signals trader expectations of 3–6 more exits from vulnerable districts or seniors before primary filing deadlines in spring. Higher bins like 32–35 differentiate on potential midterm pressures in GOP-held seats, while consolidation behind 24–27 hinges on slowing announcements absent redistricting shocks or leadership shifts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,927End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced retirements per Ballotpedia's March 27 tracker—up from earlier counts after January announcements by Reps. Steny Hoyer (Maryland) and Julia Brownley (California), both long-serving members citing age and new pursuits. This pace, amid record House turnover (57 total, 36 Republicans), signals trader expectations of 3–6 more exits from vulnerable districts or seniors before primary filing deadlines in spring. Higher bins like 32–35 differentiate on potential midterm pressures in GOP-held seats, while consolidation behind 24–27 hinges on slowing announcements absent redistricting shocks or leadership shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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