Market icon
Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 23%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.5%

Ruth Fortune 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 23%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.5%

Ruth Fortune 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$2,810 Vol.

47%

John Larson

$551 Vol.

32%

Jillian Gilchrest

$0 Vol.

5%

Ruth Fortune

$486 Vol.

4%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,379 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the Connecticut 1st Congressional District Democratic primary favors former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin at 47% implied probability over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at 32%, reflecting Bronin's sustained fundraising lead—over $1.7 million raised through early 2026 versus Larson's totals—along with endorsements from progressive groups pushing generational change against the 77-year-old congressman's long tenure. Larson's March 27 release of an internal GQR poll (conducted late January) showed him leading 49%-26% among likely voters, with state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest at 9%, bolstering his incumbency and Ways and Means Committee seniority, yet traders appear skeptical of the house poll amid Bronin's momentum. Lower probabilities for Gilchrest (4.5%), Hartford school board member Ruth Fortune (4.3%), and perennial candidate Mark Stewart Greenstein (1.1%) underscore their limited traction. The August 11 primary remains closely contested, with turnout among key Democratic voting blocs in Hartford-area battlegrounds pivotal.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,226
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the Connecticut 1st Congressional District Democratic primary favors former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin at 47% implied probability over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at 32%, reflecting Bronin's sustained fundraising lead—over $1.7 million raised through early 2026 versus Larson's totals—along with endorsements from progressive groups pushing generational change against the 77-year-old congressman's long tenure. Larson's March 27 release of an internal GQR poll (conducted late January) showed him leading 49%-26% among likely voters, with state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest at 9%, bolstering his incumbency and Ways and Means Committee seniority, yet traders appear skeptical of the house poll amid Bronin's momentum. Lower probabilities for Gilchrest (4.5%), Hartford school board member Ruth Fortune (4.3%), and perennial candidate Mark Stewart Greenstein (1.1%) underscore their limited traction. The August 11 primary remains closely contested, with turnout among key Democratic voting blocs in Hartford-area battlegrounds pivotal.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,226
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

Market icon

Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

52%
Market icon

Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?

57%
Market icon

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

60%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, followed by "John Larson" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Larson" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.