Recent polling and analyst ratings point to roughly nine 2026 Senate contests as competitive enough to finish within a few points, centered on open or vulnerable seats in North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. Retirements by incumbents such as Thom Tillis and Gary Peters, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Michael Whatley, have kept these races fluid. National generic-ballot trends and state-level economic sentiment have narrowed margins in several Republican-held states, while Democratic efforts to defend Michigan and hold other seats add uncertainty. With the November 3 election less than two months away, late-campaign developments in voter turnout, candidate debates, and any shifts in the broader political environment could determine which specific races stay inside the 5 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$58,966 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
81%
Iowa
63%
Michigan
69%
Ohio (Special)
59%
Maine
54%
Nebraska
54%
Alaska
59%
North Carolina
41%
New Hampshire
38%
Florida (Special)
37%
Georgia
30%
Kansas
25%
Minnesota
22%
New Mexico
12%
Montana
10%
Colorado
5%
Virginia
5%
South Carolina
57%
$58,966 Vol.
Texas
$5,811 Vol.
81%
Iowa
$5,605 Vol.
63%
Michigan
$2,675 Vol.
69%
Ohio (Special)
$3,485 Vol.
59%
Maine
$1,011 Vol.
54%
Nebraska
$3,579 Vol.
54%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
59%
North Carolina
$5,184 Vol.
41%
New Hampshire
$2,320 Vol.
38%
Florida (Special)
$2,178 Vol.
37%
Georgia
$1,163 Vol.
30%
Kansas
$292 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,485 Vol.
22%
New Mexico
$6,655 Vol.
12%
Montana
$2,739 Vol.
10%
Colorado
$2,543 Vol.
5%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
5%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
57%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and analyst ratings point to roughly nine 2026 Senate contests as competitive enough to finish within a few points, centered on open or vulnerable seats in North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. Retirements by incumbents such as Thom Tillis and Gary Peters, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Michael Whatley, have kept these races fluid. National generic-ballot trends and state-level economic sentiment have narrowed margins in several Republican-held states, while Democratic efforts to defend Michigan and hold other seats add uncertainty. With the November 3 election less than two months away, late-campaign developments in voter turnout, candidate debates, and any shifts in the broader political environment could determine which specific races stay inside the 5 percent threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$58,966End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and analyst ratings point to roughly nine 2026 Senate contests as competitive enough to finish within a few points, centered on open or vulnerable seats in North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. Retirements by incumbents such as Thom Tillis and Gary Peters, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Michael Whatley, have kept these races fluid. National generic-ballot trends and state-level economic sentiment have narrowed margins in several Republican-held states, while Democratic efforts to defend Michigan and hold other seats add uncertainty. With the November 3 election less than two months away, late-campaign developments in voter turnout, candidate debates, and any shifts in the broader political environment could determine which specific races stay inside the 5 percent threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$58,966End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling and analyst ratings point to roughly nine 2026 Senate contests as competitive enough to finish within a few points, centered on open or vulnerable seats in North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. Retirements by incumbents such as Thom Tillis and Gary Peters, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Michael Whatley, have kept these races fluid. National generic-ballot trends and state-level economic sentiment have narrowed margins in several Republican-held states, while Democratic efforts to defend Michigan and hold other seats add uncertainty. With the November 3 election less than two months away, late-campaign developments in voter turnout, candidate debates, and any shifts in the broader political environment could determine which specific races stay inside the 5 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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