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Politics·Alaska Midterm

Alaska Senate Election Winner

icon for Alaska Senate Election Winner
Politics·Alaska Midterm

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola 78%

Sen. Dan Sullivan 24%

Ann Diener <1%

Dustin Darden <1%

Polymarket

$649,239 Vol.

Mary Peltola 78%

Sen. Dan Sullivan 24%

Ann Diener <1%

Dustin Darden <1%

Polymarket

$649,239 Vol.

icon for Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola

$469,824 Vol.

78%

icon for Sen. Dan Sullivan

Sen. Dan Sullivan

$180,834 Vol.

24%

icon for Ann Diener

Ann Diener

$36,064 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dustin Darden

Dustin Darden

$23,336 Vol.

<1%

icon for Richard Grayson

Richard Grayson

$24,857 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

$0 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Leslie

David Leslie

$2,406 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Mary Peltola holds a substantial edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska Senate race due to her strong primary performance, consistent polling leads or near-ties in recent surveys, and advantages under ranked-choice voting that allow her to consolidate second preferences from independents and minor candidates. Recent September polls, including an AARP survey showing her ahead 53-47 after RCV reallocations, highlight her strength among voters under 50, women, and independents, while incumbent Dan Sullivan maintains support among older voters and Republicans in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Key campaign dynamics center on fisheries management, bycatch limits, and fuel costs, where Peltola emphasizes her personal background as an Alaska fisherman and Sullivan points to his legislative record and appropriations. Minor Republican entries like Dan J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes add complexity to vote splitting, but Peltola’s fundraising edge and crossover appeal have positioned the race as a toss-up among forecasters despite the market’s implied probability. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$649,239
End Date
Aug 1, 2027
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Mary Peltola holds a substantial edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska Senate race due to her strong primary performance, consistent polling leads or near-ties in recent surveys, and advantages under ranked-choice voting that allow her to consolidate second preferences from independents and minor candidates. Recent September polls, including an AARP survey showing her ahead 53-47 after RCV reallocations, highlight her strength among voters under 50, women, and independents, while incumbent Dan Sullivan maintains support among older voters and Republicans in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Key campaign dynamics center on fisheries management, bycatch limits, and fuel costs, where Peltola emphasizes her personal background as an Alaska fisherman and Sullivan points to his legislative record and appropriations. Minor Republican entries like Dan J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes add complexity to vote splitting, but Peltola’s fundraising edge and crossover appeal have positioned the race as a toss-up among forecasters despite the market’s implied probability. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$649,239
End Date
Aug 1, 2027
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alaska Senate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mary Peltola" at 78%, followed by "Sen. Dan Sullivan" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alaska Senate Election Winner" has generated $649.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alaska Senate Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alaska Senate Election Winner" is "Mary Peltola" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sen. Dan Sullivan" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alaska Senate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.