Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in the Alaska Senate race according to trader consensus, driven by her narrow first-choice advantage in early returns from the November 3 election and the mechanics of ranked-choice voting. With 74 percent of ballots counted, Peltola sits at 48.2 percent to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 47.9 percent, below the 50 percent threshold that would avoid further rounds. Analyses of available data indicate that second-choice rankings from eliminated candidates, including the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot, disproportionately flow to Peltola. Remaining absentee and mail ballots, plus the scheduled ranked-choice tabulation after November 18, represent the primary variables that could still alter the outcome if they deviate sharply from current patterns.