Mary Peltola holds a clear lead in recent polling averages for Alaska’s November 3 Senate contest, typically ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by 1–3 points in surveys from late September through early October, with some showing wider margins. The state’s ranked-choice voting system, combined with a top-four primary that advanced Peltola, Sullivan, and two minor Republican candidates, favors her in head-to-head tabulations according to multiple forecasts. Peltola’s strong third-quarter fundraising and emphasis on state-specific issues such as fisheries and energy costs have sustained her position, while Republican efforts—including recent rallies by President Trump and Vice President Vance—have not yet reversed the polling trend. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics in a race rated Lean Democratic or Toss-up by most analysts.