Massachusetts's deep Democratic lean and Ed Markey's incumbency advantage anchor trader consensus around his reelection, reinforced by his September 1 primary victory over Rep. Seth Moulton with roughly 65% of the vote. Recent University of New Hampshire and other polling shows Markey leading Republican John Deaton by 19-23 points among likely voters, consistent with the state's historical margins and the race's Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters. Deaton's unopposed primary and focus on economic issues have not narrowed the gap meaningfully. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal, significant health developments for the 80-year-old incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout patterns before November 3.