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icon for FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Florida

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Florida

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Elijah Manley 46%

Dale Holness 17%

Maisha Williams 6.3%

Mark Douglas 5.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Elijah Manley 46%

Dale Holness 17%

Maisha Williams 6.3%

Mark Douglas 5.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Elijah Manley

$1,830 Vol.

35%

Dale Holness

$499 Vol.

37%

Maisha Williams

$284 Vol.

6%

Mark Douglas

$259 Vol.

5%

Luther Campbell

$249 Vol.

5%

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

$770 Vol.

2%

Rudy Moise

$480 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's April 21 resignation amid ethics investigations, trader consensus prices former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness slightly ahead of organizer Elijah Manley in the FL-20 Democratic primary, reflecting a closely contested race with both at around 35-37%. Holness benefits from name recognition after narrowly losing the 2021 special primary to Cherfilus-McCormick by five votes, appealing to establishment voters, while Manley sustains momentum from February-March polls showing him leading and endorsements like the Alliance for American Leadership PAC. The crowded field, including recent entrant Luther Campbell, fragments support in this majority-Black district, amplified by Black Democratic leaders' recent push against outside candidates to preserve representation. Q2 fundraising reports, endorsements, and forums could tip the balance ahead of the August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,371
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's April 21 resignation amid ethics investigations, trader consensus prices former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness slightly ahead of organizer Elijah Manley in the FL-20 Democratic primary, reflecting a closely contested race with both at around 35-37%. Holness benefits from name recognition after narrowly losing the 2021 special primary to Cherfilus-McCormick by five votes, appealing to establishment voters, while Manley sustains momentum from February-March polls showing him leading and endorsements like the Alliance for American Leadership PAC. The crowded field, including recent entrant Luther Campbell, fragments support in this majority-Black district, amplified by Black Democratic leaders' recent push against outside candidates to preserve representation. Q2 fundraising reports, endorsements, and forums could tip the balance ahead of the August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,371
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dale Holness" at 37%, followed by "Elijah Manley" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Dale Holness" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elijah Manley" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.