South Carolina's August 11 special Republican Senate primary featured a crowded field after the death of incumbent Lindsey Graham, with vote shares split among Darline Graham at roughly 33 percent, Ralph Norman near 25 percent, and Russell Fry around 20 percent. Under state rules requiring a majority for an outright nomination, the fragmented results triggered an automatic August 25 runoff between the top two finishers. Pre-election polling consistently showed the leading candidate well short of 50 percent amid multiple contenders, reinforcing trader expectations of no first-round winner. Certification delays, recount requests, or legal challenges to vote totals remain the primary variables that could theoretically alter final tallies, though reported margins make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFirst round outright winner in the SC Special Republican Senate Primary?
First round outright winner in the SC Special Republican Senate Primary?
<1% chance
$3,807 Vol.
$3,807 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
<1% chance
$3,807 Vol.
$3,807 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.South Carolina's August 11 special Republican Senate primary featured a crowded field after the death of incumbent Lindsey Graham, with vote shares split among Darline Graham at roughly 33 percent, Ralph Norman near 25 percent, and Russell Fry around 20 percent. Under state rules requiring a majority for an outright nomination, the fragmented results triggered an automatic August 25 runoff between the top two finishers. Pre-election polling consistently showed the leading candidate well short of 50 percent amid multiple contenders, reinforcing trader expectations of no first-round winner. Certification delays, recount requests, or legal challenges to vote totals remain the primary variables that could theoretically alter final tallies, though reported margins make such shifts improbable.
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$3,807End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.South Carolina's August 11 special Republican Senate primary featured a crowded field after the death of incumbent Lindsey Graham, with vote shares split among Darline Graham at roughly 33 percent, Ralph Norman near 25 percent, and Russell Fry around 20 percent. Under state rules requiring a majority for an outright nomination, the fragmented results triggered an automatic August 25 runoff between the top two finishers. Pre-election polling consistently showed the leading candidate well short of 50 percent amid multiple contenders, reinforcing trader expectations of no first-round winner. Certification delays, recount requests, or legal challenges to vote totals remain the primary variables that could theoretically alter final tallies, though reported margins make such shifts improbable.
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$3,807End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
South Carolina's August 11 special Republican Senate primary featured a crowded field after the death of incumbent Lindsey Graham, with vote shares split among Darline Graham at roughly 33 percent, Ralph Norman near 25 percent, and Russell Fry around 20 percent. Under state rules requiring a majority for an outright nomination, the fragmented results triggered an automatic August 25 runoff between the top two finishers. Pre-election polling consistently showed the leading candidate well short of 50 percent amid multiple contenders, reinforcing trader expectations of no first-round winner. Certification delays, recount requests, or legal challenges to vote totals remain the primary variables that could theoretically alter final tallies, though reported margins make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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