Florida's entrenched Republican advantages, including a substantial voter registration edge and no Democratic statewide victory since 2018, underpin trader consensus favoring incumbent Ashley Moody at 90.5% implied probability over Democrat Angie Nixon at 9.5%. Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term and backed by President Trump, benefits from superior fundraising, primary consolidation, and alignment with the state’s recent electoral trends. Nixon’s primary upset victory has not translated into broad general-election momentum amid limited undecided voters this close to the November 3 special election. Late developments such as turnout surges among key demographics, major scandals, or health-related withdrawals could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns in Florida Senate contests suggest limited scope for such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlorida Senate Election Winner
Florida Senate Election Winner
$124,099 Vol.
$124,099 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
91%
Angie Nixon (D)
10%
$124,099 Vol.
$124,099 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$64,708 Vol.
91%
Angie Nixon (D)
$59,391 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's entrenched Republican advantages, including a substantial voter registration edge and no Democratic statewide victory since 2018, underpin trader consensus favoring incumbent Ashley Moody at 90.5% implied probability over Democrat Angie Nixon at 9.5%. Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term and backed by President Trump, benefits from superior fundraising, primary consolidation, and alignment with the state’s recent electoral trends. Nixon’s primary upset victory has not translated into broad general-election momentum amid limited undecided voters this close to the November 3 special election. Late developments such as turnout surges among key demographics, major scandals, or health-related withdrawals could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns in Florida Senate contests suggest limited scope for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$124,099Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's entrenched Republican advantages, including a substantial voter registration edge and no Democratic statewide victory since 2018, underpin trader consensus favoring incumbent Ashley Moody at 90.5% implied probability over Democrat Angie Nixon at 9.5%. Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term and backed by President Trump, benefits from superior fundraising, primary consolidation, and alignment with the state’s recent electoral trends. Nixon’s primary upset victory has not translated into broad general-election momentum amid limited undecided voters this close to the November 3 special election. Late developments such as turnout surges among key demographics, major scandals, or health-related withdrawals could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns in Florida Senate contests suggest limited scope for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$124,099Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's entrenched Republican advantages, including a substantial voter registration edge and no Democratic statewide victory since 2018, underpin trader consensus favoring incumbent Ashley Moody at 90.5% implied probability over Democrat Angie Nixon at 9.5%. Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term and backed by President Trump, benefits from superior fundraising, primary consolidation, and alignment with the state’s recent electoral trends. Nixon’s primary upset victory has not translated into broad general-election momentum amid limited undecided voters this close to the November 3 special election. Late developments such as turnout surges among key demographics, major scandals, or health-related withdrawals could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns in Florida Senate contests suggest limited scope for such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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