Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Florida U.S. Senate special election due to her status as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, combined with Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in recent cycles and strong party backing including endorsements from President Trump. Moody’s prior service as state attorney general provides broad name recognition and fundraising dominance, while Democratic nominee Angie Nixon, a state representative and Democratic Socialists of America member who upset a better-funded primary opponent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans have won recent Senate contests by double digits. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by several points, though some surveys indicate a closer contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments affecting voter sentiment, or shifts in national political conditions before the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlorida Senate Election Winner
Florida Senate Election Winner
$124,110 Vol.
$124,110 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
91%
Angie Nixon (D)
10%
$124,110 Vol.
$124,110 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$64,718 Vol.
91%
Angie Nixon (D)
$59,391 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Florida U.S. Senate special election due to her status as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, combined with Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in recent cycles and strong party backing including endorsements from President Trump. Moody’s prior service as state attorney general provides broad name recognition and fundraising dominance, while Democratic nominee Angie Nixon, a state representative and Democratic Socialists of America member who upset a better-funded primary opponent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans have won recent Senate contests by double digits. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by several points, though some surveys indicate a closer contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments affecting voter sentiment, or shifts in national political conditions before the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$124,110Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Florida U.S. Senate special election due to her status as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, combined with Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in recent cycles and strong party backing including endorsements from President Trump. Moody’s prior service as state attorney general provides broad name recognition and fundraising dominance, while Democratic nominee Angie Nixon, a state representative and Democratic Socialists of America member who upset a better-funded primary opponent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans have won recent Senate contests by double digits. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by several points, though some surveys indicate a closer contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments affecting voter sentiment, or shifts in national political conditions before the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$124,110Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Florida U.S. Senate special election due to her status as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, combined with Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in recent cycles and strong party backing including endorsements from President Trump. Moody’s prior service as state attorney general provides broad name recognition and fundraising dominance, while Democratic nominee Angie Nixon, a state representative and Democratic Socialists of America member who upset a better-funded primary opponent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans have won recent Senate contests by double digits. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by several points, though some surveys indicate a closer contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments affecting voter sentiment, or shifts in national political conditions before the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions