Kevin Hern secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s open U.S. Senate seat after winning the June 2026 primary outright with roughly 70 percent of the vote, aided by an early endorsement from President Trump and the absence of strong primary challengers. The seat became vacant when former Senator Markwayne Mullin resigned to join the Trump administration. In the solidly Republican state, where the party has held the seat for decades and recent presidential results showed large GOP margins, traders view Hern as the prohibitive favorite to win the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse who prevailed in her August runoff, faces structural disadvantages including limited campaign resources and the state’s partisan makeup. A major late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Republican turnout could theoretically shift the outcome, though no such developments have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOklahoma Senate Election Winner
Oklahoma Senate Election Winner
$26,185 Vol.
$26,185 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Hern (R)
97%
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)
3%
$26,185 Vol.
$26,185 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Hern (R)
$19,603 Vol.
97%
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)
$6,582 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kevin Hern secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s open U.S. Senate seat after winning the June 2026 primary outright with roughly 70 percent of the vote, aided by an early endorsement from President Trump and the absence of strong primary challengers. The seat became vacant when former Senator Markwayne Mullin resigned to join the Trump administration. In the solidly Republican state, where the party has held the seat for decades and recent presidential results showed large GOP margins, traders view Hern as the prohibitive favorite to win the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse who prevailed in her August runoff, faces structural disadvantages including limited campaign resources and the state’s partisan makeup. A major late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Republican turnout could theoretically shift the outcome, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$26,185End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kevin Hern secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s open U.S. Senate seat after winning the June 2026 primary outright with roughly 70 percent of the vote, aided by an early endorsement from President Trump and the absence of strong primary challengers. The seat became vacant when former Senator Markwayne Mullin resigned to join the Trump administration. In the solidly Republican state, where the party has held the seat for decades and recent presidential results showed large GOP margins, traders view Hern as the prohibitive favorite to win the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse who prevailed in her August runoff, faces structural disadvantages including limited campaign resources and the state’s partisan makeup. A major late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Republican turnout could theoretically shift the outcome, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$26,185End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kevin Hern secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s open U.S. Senate seat after winning the June 2026 primary outright with roughly 70 percent of the vote, aided by an early endorsement from President Trump and the absence of strong primary challengers. The seat became vacant when former Senator Markwayne Mullin resigned to join the Trump administration. In the solidly Republican state, where the party has held the seat for decades and recent presidential results showed large GOP margins, traders view Hern as the prohibitive favorite to win the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse who prevailed in her August runoff, faces structural disadvantages including limited campaign resources and the state’s partisan makeup. A major late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Republican turnout could theoretically shift the outcome, though no such developments have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions