Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open Senate seat by defeating Representative Angie Craig by nearly 20 points in the August primary, consolidating progressive support in a state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. The race to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith features a Democratic-leaning electorate that supported Kamala Harris by four points in 2024, giving Flanagan a structural edge as lieutenant governor with broad name recognition and party infrastructure. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited Republican success in similar cycles. Michele Tafoya’s primary win provides a moderate general-election nominee with media visibility, yet traders assign her low odds absent major shifts. Potential disruptors include sustained focus on state fraud concerns that could erode Democratic margins or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban and rural areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMinnesota Senate Election Winner
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
$93,027 Vol.
$93,027 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
93%
Michele Tafoya (R)
9%
$93,027 Vol.
$93,027 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
$63,424 Vol.
93%
Michele Tafoya (R)
$29,604 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open Senate seat by defeating Representative Angie Craig by nearly 20 points in the August primary, consolidating progressive support in a state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. The race to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith features a Democratic-leaning electorate that supported Kamala Harris by four points in 2024, giving Flanagan a structural edge as lieutenant governor with broad name recognition and party infrastructure. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited Republican success in similar cycles. Michele Tafoya’s primary win provides a moderate general-election nominee with media visibility, yet traders assign her low odds absent major shifts. Potential disruptors include sustained focus on state fraud concerns that could erode Democratic margins or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban and rural areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$93,027End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open Senate seat by defeating Representative Angie Craig by nearly 20 points in the August primary, consolidating progressive support in a state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. The race to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith features a Democratic-leaning electorate that supported Kamala Harris by four points in 2024, giving Flanagan a structural edge as lieutenant governor with broad name recognition and party infrastructure. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited Republican success in similar cycles. Michele Tafoya’s primary win provides a moderate general-election nominee with media visibility, yet traders assign her low odds absent major shifts. Potential disruptors include sustained focus on state fraud concerns that could erode Democratic margins or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban and rural areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$93,027End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open Senate seat by defeating Representative Angie Craig by nearly 20 points in the August primary, consolidating progressive support in a state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. The race to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith features a Democratic-leaning electorate that supported Kamala Harris by four points in 2024, giving Flanagan a structural edge as lieutenant governor with broad name recognition and party infrastructure. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan patterns and limited Republican success in similar cycles. Michele Tafoya’s primary win provides a moderate general-election nominee with media visibility, yet traders assign her low odds absent major shifts. Potential disruptors include sustained focus on state fraud concerns that could erode Democratic margins or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban and rural areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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