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icon for VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Shannon Taylor 99.6%

Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs <1%

Mel Tull <1%

Salaam Bhatti <1%

Polymarket

$20,048 Vol.

Shannon Taylor 99.6%

Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs <1%

Mel Tull <1%

Salaam Bhatti <1%

Polymarket

$20,048 Vol.

icon for Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs

Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs

$1,127 Vol.

No

icon for Mel Tull

Mel Tull

$602 Vol.

No

icon for Salaam Bhatti

Salaam Bhatti

$1,609 Vol.

No

icon for Tim Cywinski

Tim Cywinski

$813 Vol.

No

icon for Jason Knapp

Jason Knapp

$929 Vol.

No

icon for Shannon Taylor

Shannon Taylor

$13,588 Vol.

Yes

icon for Ericka Kopp

Ericka Kopp

$1,380 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Shannon Taylor secured overwhelming trader consensus in the Virginia’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary through superior fundraising exceeding $2 million, early inclusion in the DCCC Red to Blue program, and endorsements from state party leaders including incoming Governor Abigail Spanberger. As Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney, Taylor leveraged her prosecutorial record and moderate positioning against a crowded field of seven candidates, including Salaam Bhatti, Jason Knapp, Ericka Kopp, and others with lower visibility and resources. The August 4 primary results, showing Taylor capturing a majority of votes, reinforced this market outcome. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of an official recount, certification dispute, or withdrawal before the general election nomination is finalized.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,048
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Shannon Taylor secured overwhelming trader consensus in the Virginia’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary through superior fundraising exceeding $2 million, early inclusion in the DCCC Red to Blue program, and endorsements from state party leaders including incoming Governor Abigail Spanberger. As Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney, Taylor leveraged her prosecutorial record and moderate positioning against a crowded field of seven candidates, including Salaam Bhatti, Jason Knapp, Ericka Kopp, and others with lower visibility and resources. The August 4 primary results, showing Taylor capturing a majority of votes, reinforced this market outcome. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of an official recount, certification dispute, or withdrawal before the general election nomination is finalized.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,048
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Shannon Taylor" at 100%, followed by "Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Shannon Taylor" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.