The 2026 Iowa Senate race remains tightly contested as an open seat following Joni Ernst’s retirement, with recent polling averages showing Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek separated by just a few points or tied. Hinson secured the Republican nomination with strong primary support including from Donald Trump, while Turek won his party’s nod after emphasizing bipartisan work and personal background as a state legislator and Paralympic athlete. Trader sentiment reflects Iowa’s Republican lean offset by mixed national conditions, including lower Trump approval ratings in the state and debates over issues such as healthcare policy, agriculture impacts from foreign conflicts, and campaign positioning. Hinson’s recent public distance from certain administration actions has coincided with some surveys showing Turek competitive or ahead. Upcoming debates, fundraising edges, and voter turnout patterns in rural and suburban areas could widen or close the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIowa Senate Election Winner
Iowa Senate Election Winner
$565,309 Vol.
$565,309 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
54%
Josh Turek (D)
47%
$565,309 Vol.
$565,309 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
$261,831 Vol.
54%
Josh Turek (D)
$303,477 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The 2026 Iowa Senate race remains tightly contested as an open seat following Joni Ernst’s retirement, with recent polling averages showing Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek separated by just a few points or tied. Hinson secured the Republican nomination with strong primary support including from Donald Trump, while Turek won his party’s nod after emphasizing bipartisan work and personal background as a state legislator and Paralympic athlete. Trader sentiment reflects Iowa’s Republican lean offset by mixed national conditions, including lower Trump approval ratings in the state and debates over issues such as healthcare policy, agriculture impacts from foreign conflicts, and campaign positioning. Hinson’s recent public distance from certain administration actions has coincided with some surveys showing Turek competitive or ahead. Upcoming debates, fundraising edges, and voter turnout patterns in rural and suburban areas could widen or close the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volume
$565,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The 2026 Iowa Senate race remains tightly contested as an open seat following Joni Ernst’s retirement, with recent polling averages showing Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek separated by just a few points or tied. Hinson secured the Republican nomination with strong primary support including from Donald Trump, while Turek won his party’s nod after emphasizing bipartisan work and personal background as a state legislator and Paralympic athlete. Trader sentiment reflects Iowa’s Republican lean offset by mixed national conditions, including lower Trump approval ratings in the state and debates over issues such as healthcare policy, agriculture impacts from foreign conflicts, and campaign positioning. Hinson’s recent public distance from certain administration actions has coincided with some surveys showing Turek competitive or ahead. Upcoming debates, fundraising edges, and voter turnout patterns in rural and suburban areas could widen or close the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$565,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...The 2026 Iowa Senate race remains tightly contested as an open seat following Joni Ernst’s retirement, with recent polling averages showing Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek separated by just a few points or tied. Hinson secured the Republican nomination with strong primary support including from Donald Trump, while Turek won his party’s nod after emphasizing bipartisan work and personal background as a state legislator and Paralympic athlete. Trader sentiment reflects Iowa’s Republican lean offset by mixed national conditions, including lower Trump approval ratings in the state and debates over issues such as healthcare policy, agriculture impacts from foreign conflicts, and campaign positioning. Hinson’s recent public distance from certain administration actions has coincided with some surveys showing Turek competitive or ahead. Upcoming debates, fundraising edges, and voter turnout patterns in rural and suburban areas could widen or close the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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