The close polling average and Iowa's Republican lean position Ashley Hinson with a modest edge in the open Senate race, reflected in current trader consensus. Recent aggregates through mid-September show Hinson ahead by roughly 1-2 points across mixed surveys, including leads in co/efficient and Emerson polls offset by tighter or Democratic-leaning results elsewhere. Hinson's House record, fundraising advantage, and endorsements have helped stabilize her position, while Josh Turek has drawn support through his primary win, Obama endorsement, and emphasis on affordability, Medicaid, and tariffs amid voter concerns over costs. Ongoing foreign policy debates, including Hinson's recent calls to end Middle East conflicts, have fueled campaign exchanges without shifting the narrow fundamentals. The November 3 contest remains sensitive to turnout and late economic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIowa Senate Election Winner
Iowa Senate Election Winner
$447,050 Vol.
$447,050 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
59%
Josh Turek (D)
43%
$447,050 Vol.
$447,050 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
$228,556 Vol.
59%
Josh Turek (D)
$218,494 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The close polling average and Iowa's Republican lean position Ashley Hinson with a modest edge in the open Senate race, reflected in current trader consensus. Recent aggregates through mid-September show Hinson ahead by roughly 1-2 points across mixed surveys, including leads in co/efficient and Emerson polls offset by tighter or Democratic-leaning results elsewhere. Hinson's House record, fundraising advantage, and endorsements have helped stabilize her position, while Josh Turek has drawn support through his primary win, Obama endorsement, and emphasis on affordability, Medicaid, and tariffs amid voter concerns over costs. Ongoing foreign policy debates, including Hinson's recent calls to end Middle East conflicts, have fueled campaign exchanges without shifting the narrow fundamentals. The November 3 contest remains sensitive to turnout and late economic signals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volume
$447,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The close polling average and Iowa's Republican lean position Ashley Hinson with a modest edge in the open Senate race, reflected in current trader consensus. Recent aggregates through mid-September show Hinson ahead by roughly 1-2 points across mixed surveys, including leads in co/efficient and Emerson polls offset by tighter or Democratic-leaning results elsewhere. Hinson's House record, fundraising advantage, and endorsements have helped stabilize her position, while Josh Turek has drawn support through his primary win, Obama endorsement, and emphasis on affordability, Medicaid, and tariffs amid voter concerns over costs. Ongoing foreign policy debates, including Hinson's recent calls to end Middle East conflicts, have fueled campaign exchanges without shifting the narrow fundamentals. The November 3 contest remains sensitive to turnout and late economic signals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$447,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The close polling average and Iowa's Republican lean position Ashley Hinson with a modest edge in the open Senate race, reflected in current trader consensus. Recent aggregates through mid-September show Hinson ahead by roughly 1-2 points across mixed surveys, including leads in co/efficient and Emerson polls offset by tighter or Democratic-leaning results elsewhere. Hinson's House record, fundraising advantage, and endorsements have helped stabilize her position, while Josh Turek has drawn support through his primary win, Obama endorsement, and emphasis on affordability, Medicaid, and tariffs amid voter concerns over costs. Ongoing foreign policy debates, including Hinson's recent calls to end Middle East conflicts, have fueled campaign exchanges without shifting the narrow fundamentals. The November 3 contest remains sensitive to turnout and late economic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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