Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Iowa Senate Election Winner
Elections·Iowa Midterm

Iowa Senate Election Winner

icon for Iowa Senate Election Winner
Elections·Iowa Midterm

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Polymarket

$552,335 Vol.

Polymarket

$552,335 Vol.

icon for Ashley Hinson (R)

Ashley Hinson (R)

$257,315 Vol.

52%

icon for Josh Turek (D)

Josh Turek (D)

$295,020 Vol.

48%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Iowa Senate race remains tightly contested because the open seat left by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst draws two established nominees in a state that leans Republican but features a complex electorate sensitive to pocketbook issues. Recent polls show margins within a few points, with averages near 44-45 percent for each candidate, reflecting competing strengths in turnout, fundraising, and messaging on agriculture, healthcare costs, and federal policy impacts. Trader consensus around 51.5 percent for Republican Ashley Hinson versus 47.5 percent for Democrat Josh Turek aligns with forecaster toss-up or lean-Republican ratings. Late-cycle polling shifts, campaign contrasts on spending and trade, or changes in voter sentiment tied to economic conditions could widen the gap before November voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$552,335
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Iowa Senate race remains tightly contested because the open seat left by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst draws two established nominees in a state that leans Republican but features a complex electorate sensitive to pocketbook issues. Recent polls show margins within a few points, with averages near 44-45 percent for each candidate, reflecting competing strengths in turnout, fundraising, and messaging on agriculture, healthcare costs, and federal policy impacts. Trader consensus around 51.5 percent for Republican Ashley Hinson versus 47.5 percent for Democrat Josh Turek aligns with forecaster toss-up or lean-Republican ratings. Late-cycle polling shifts, campaign contrasts on spending and trade, or changes in voter sentiment tied to economic conditions could widen the gap before November voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$552,335
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...

Related

icon for Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

93%
icon for Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

95%
icon for Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?

Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iowa Senate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley Hinson (R)" at 52%, followed by "Josh Turek (D)" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iowa Senate Election Winner" has generated $552.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iowa Senate Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iowa Senate Election Winner" is "Ashley Hinson (R)" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Josh Turek (D)" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iowa Senate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.