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Politics·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election Winner

Analilia Mejia 99.5%

Joe Hathaway <1%

Alan Bond <1%

Polymarket

$22,668 Vol.

Analilia Mejia 99.5%

Joe Hathaway <1%

Alan Bond <1%

Polymarket

$22,668 Vol.

Analilia Mejia

$19,108 Vol.

100%

Joe Hathaway

$1,668 Vol.

<1%

Alan Bond

$1,892 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.**Analilia Mejia commands 99.5¢ trader consensus in the NJ-11 special U.S. House election due to her narrow February Democratic primary upset in the district Rep. Mikie Sherrill won by 14 points in 2024, a March internal poll showing her 53%-36% edge over Republican Joe Hathaway, and strong Democratic early voting through April 10—with 48% of in-person ballots from Democrats (versus 40% Republicans) and mail voting even more lopsided at D+50.** This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects the district's Democratic lean and base enthusiasm in the low-turnout special ahead of the April 16 contest against Hathaway and independent Alan Bond. Late shifts could arise from a GOP Election Day surge, Mejia scandal, or Bond siphoning votes, but significant barriers persist given current dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volume
$22,668
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.**Analilia Mejia commands 99.5¢ trader consensus in the NJ-11 special U.S. House election due to her narrow February Democratic primary upset in the district Rep. Mikie Sherrill won by 14 points in 2024, a March internal poll showing her 53%-36% edge over Republican Joe Hathaway, and strong Democratic early voting through April 10—with 48% of in-person ballots from Democrats (versus 40% Republicans) and mail voting even more lopsided at D+50.** This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects the district's Democratic lean and base enthusiasm in the low-turnout special ahead of the April 16 contest against Hathaway and independent Alan Bond. Late shifts could arise from a GOP Election Day surge, Mejia scandal, or Bond siphoning votes, but significant barriers persist given current dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volume
$22,668
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NJ-11 Special Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Analilia Mejia" at 100%, followed by "Joe Hathaway" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NJ-11 Special Election Winner" has generated $22.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NJ-11 Special Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NJ-11 Special Election Winner" is "Analilia Mejia" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joe Hathaway" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NJ-11 Special Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.