Recent polls, including Quantus Insights (51% yes, 47% no among registered voters on April 16) and earlier Washington Post/Schar School surveys (52% yes among likely voters), show narrow support for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, mirroring trader consensus on slim passage margins like 6-9% (24.5¢). The ballot question addresses population shifts between censuses, but breaks heavily along partisan lines, with Republicans viewing it as a gerrymander favoring Democrats 10-1, boosting motivated no-vote turnout in early voting across GOP-leaning districts. Special election dynamics amplify uncertainty, as low overall participation could tip results; separation may come from final early voting tallies through April 18, Election Day mobilization on April 21, or late partisan messaging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 25%
Pass 6-9% 25%
No Pass 16.5%
Pass 9-12% 13%
$14,805 Vol.
$14,805 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 15%+
8%
Pass 12-15%
11%
Pass 9-12%
13%
Pass 6-9%
25%
Pass 3-6%
22%
Pass <3%
12%
No Pass
16%
Pass 3-6% 25%
Pass 6-9% 25%
No Pass 16.5%
Pass 9-12% 13%
$14,805 Vol.
$14,805 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 15%+
$1,898 Vol.
8%
Pass 12-15%
$890 Vol.
11%
Pass 9-12%
$1,711 Vol.
13%
Pass 6-9%
$919 Vol.
25%
Pass 3-6%
$1,794 Vol.
22%
Pass <3%
$714 Vol.
12%
No Pass
$6,879 Vol.
16%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including Quantus Insights (51% yes, 47% no among registered voters on April 16) and earlier Washington Post/Schar School surveys (52% yes among likely voters), show narrow support for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, mirroring trader consensus on slim passage margins like 6-9% (24.5¢). The ballot question addresses population shifts between censuses, but breaks heavily along partisan lines, with Republicans viewing it as a gerrymander favoring Democrats 10-1, boosting motivated no-vote turnout in early voting across GOP-leaning districts. Special election dynamics amplify uncertainty, as low overall participation could tip results; separation may come from final early voting tallies through April 18, Election Day mobilization on April 21, or late partisan messaging.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$14,805End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including Quantus Insights (51% yes, 47% no among registered voters on April 16) and earlier Washington Post/Schar School surveys (52% yes among likely voters), show narrow support for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, mirroring trader consensus on slim passage margins like 6-9% (24.5¢). The ballot question addresses population shifts between censuses, but breaks heavily along partisan lines, with Republicans viewing it as a gerrymander favoring Democrats 10-1, boosting motivated no-vote turnout in early voting across GOP-leaning districts. Special election dynamics amplify uncertainty, as low overall participation could tip results; separation may come from final early voting tallies through April 18, Election Day mobilization on April 21, or late partisan messaging.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$14,805End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including Quantus Insights (51% yes, 47% no among registered voters on April 16) and earlier Washington Post/Schar School surveys (52% yes among likely voters), show narrow support for Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, mirroring trader consensus on slim passage margins like 6-9% (24.5¢). The ballot question addresses population shifts between censuses, but breaks heavily along partisan lines, with Republicans viewing it as a gerrymander favoring Democrats 10-1, boosting motivated no-vote turnout in early voting across GOP-leaning districts. Special election dynamics amplify uncertainty, as low overall participation could tip results; separation may come from final early voting tallies through April 18, Election Day mobilization on April 21, or late partisan messaging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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