Virginia voters narrowly approved the congressional redistricting constitutional amendment in the April 21 special election, with unofficial results showing Yes at 51.5% to No 48.5%—a 3-point margin—as over 95% of precincts reported, anchoring trader consensus at 96% odds for a 3-6% victory margin. Strong Yes support in Northern Virginia suburbs like Fairfax (+39 points) and Loudoun (+21 points) outweighed heavy rural No majorities (e.g., +70+ in southern counties), consistent with pre-election polls forecasting a tight contest amid low-turnout dynamics favoring urban turnout. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly advanced the measure after court victories to enable a new map potentially shifting to 10 Democratic-leaning districts before 2026 midterms. Final canvass of remaining ~88,000 votes or Republican legal challenges could nudge the margin below 3% or above 6%, though projections indicate stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 96.2%
Pass <3% 3.7%
Pass 6-9% <1%
Pass 9-12% <1%
$428,091 Vol.
$428,091 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 9-12%
<1%
Pass 6-9%
<1%
Pass 3-6%
96%
Pass <3%
4%
Pass 3-6% 96.2%
Pass <3% 3.7%
Pass 6-9% <1%
Pass 9-12% <1%
$428,091 Vol.
$428,091 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 9-12%
$42,006 Vol.
<1%
Pass 6-9%
$58,027 Vol.
<1%
Pass 3-6%
$118,004 Vol.
96%
Pass <3%
$129,056 Vol.
4%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters narrowly approved the congressional redistricting constitutional amendment in the April 21 special election, with unofficial results showing Yes at 51.5% to No 48.5%—a 3-point margin—as over 95% of precincts reported, anchoring trader consensus at 96% odds for a 3-6% victory margin. Strong Yes support in Northern Virginia suburbs like Fairfax (+39 points) and Loudoun (+21 points) outweighed heavy rural No majorities (e.g., +70+ in southern counties), consistent with pre-election polls forecasting a tight contest amid low-turnout dynamics favoring urban turnout. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly advanced the measure after court victories to enable a new map potentially shifting to 10 Democratic-leaning districts before 2026 midterms. Final canvass of remaining ~88,000 votes or Republican legal challenges could nudge the margin below 3% or above 6%, though projections indicate stability.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$428,091End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters narrowly approved the congressional redistricting constitutional amendment in the April 21 special election, with unofficial results showing Yes at 51.5% to No 48.5%—a 3-point margin—as over 95% of precincts reported, anchoring trader consensus at 96% odds for a 3-6% victory margin. Strong Yes support in Northern Virginia suburbs like Fairfax (+39 points) and Loudoun (+21 points) outweighed heavy rural No majorities (e.g., +70+ in southern counties), consistent with pre-election polls forecasting a tight contest amid low-turnout dynamics favoring urban turnout. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly advanced the measure after court victories to enable a new map potentially shifting to 10 Democratic-leaning districts before 2026 midterms. Final canvass of remaining ~88,000 votes or Republican legal challenges could nudge the margin below 3% or above 6%, though projections indicate stability.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$428,091End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Virginia voters narrowly approved the congressional redistricting constitutional amendment in the April 21 special election, with unofficial results showing Yes at 51.5% to No 48.5%—a 3-point margin—as over 95% of precincts reported, anchoring trader consensus at 96% odds for a 3-6% victory margin. Strong Yes support in Northern Virginia suburbs like Fairfax (+39 points) and Loudoun (+21 points) outweighed heavy rural No majorities (e.g., +70+ in southern counties), consistent with pre-election polls forecasting a tight contest amid low-turnout dynamics favoring urban turnout. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly advanced the measure after court victories to enable a new map potentially shifting to 10 Democratic-leaning districts before 2026 midterms. Final canvass of remaining ~88,000 votes or Republican legal challenges could nudge the margin below 3% or above 6%, though projections indicate stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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