Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against passage of California's proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires' assets over $1 billion in the November 2026 ballot election, driven by aggressive opposition funding and early capital flight. Tech leaders like Google co-founder Sergey Brin have channeled nearly $80 million through Building a Better California into competing ballot measures, paying $15 per valid signature—escalating costs as the July qualification deadline nears with proponents at just 25% of required signatures. A Hoover Institution study reports $536 billion in lost wealth from six billionaire departures by January 2026, fueling voter concerns echoed in a March UC Berkeley poll showing slim 52% support amid partisan splits (72% Democrats favor, 72% Republicans oppose) and 15% undecideds, alongside Governor Newsom's public opposition and potential constitutional challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$2,771,048 Vol.
$2,771,048 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
$2,771,048 Vol.
$2,771,048 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against passage of California's proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires' assets over $1 billion in the November 2026 ballot election, driven by aggressive opposition funding and early capital flight. Tech leaders like Google co-founder Sergey Brin have channeled nearly $80 million through Building a Better California into competing ballot measures, paying $15 per valid signature—escalating costs as the July qualification deadline nears with proponents at just 25% of required signatures. A Hoover Institution study reports $536 billion in lost wealth from six billionaire departures by January 2026, fueling voter concerns echoed in a March UC Berkeley poll showing slim 52% support amid partisan splits (72% Democrats favor, 72% Republicans oppose) and 15% undecideds, alongside Governor Newsom's public opposition and potential constitutional challenges.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$2,771,048End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against passage of California's proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires' assets over $1 billion in the November 2026 ballot election, driven by aggressive opposition funding and early capital flight. Tech leaders like Google co-founder Sergey Brin have channeled nearly $80 million through Building a Better California into competing ballot measures, paying $15 per valid signature—escalating costs as the July qualification deadline nears with proponents at just 25% of required signatures. A Hoover Institution study reports $536 billion in lost wealth from six billionaire departures by January 2026, fueling voter concerns echoed in a March UC Berkeley poll showing slim 52% support amid partisan splits (72% Democrats favor, 72% Republicans oppose) and 15% undecideds, alongside Governor Newsom's public opposition and potential constitutional challenges.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,771,048End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against passage of California's proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires' assets over $1 billion in the November 2026 ballot election, driven by aggressive opposition funding and early capital flight. Tech leaders like Google co-founder Sergey Brin have channeled nearly $80 million through Building a Better California into competing ballot measures, paying $15 per valid signature—escalating costs as the July qualification deadline nears with proponents at just 25% of required signatures. A Hoover Institution study reports $536 billion in lost wealth from six billionaire departures by January 2026, fueling voter concerns echoed in a March UC Berkeley poll showing slim 52% support amid partisan splits (72% Democrats favor, 72% Republicans oppose) and 15% undecideds, alongside Governor Newsom's public opposition and potential constitutional challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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