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Elections·Taxes

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Market icon
Elections·Taxes

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

65% chance
Polymarket

$84,384 Vol.

65% chance
Polymarket

$84,384 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Trader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability that the California Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% excise tax on net wealth exceeding $1 billion—will qualify for the November 2026 ballot, driven by strong signature-gathering progress from SEIU-backed proponents, who reported 25% of the required 874,641 signatures collected by early March. A March UC Berkeley poll showed 50% voter support amid partisan divides, bolstering momentum ahead of the June 25 verification deadline. Opposition from Bay Area billionaires, who pledged $35 million for competing ballot initiatives and higher-paid signature drives, has intensified alongside reports of preemptive relocations by figures like Sergey Brin, yet has not slowed the pro-tax campaign's organizational edge.

Trader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability that the California Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% excise tax on net wealth exceeding $1 billion—will qualify for the November 2026 ballot, driven by strong signature-gathering progress from SEIU-backed proponents, who reported 25% of the required 874,641 signatures collected by early March. A March UC Berkeley poll showed 50% voter support amid partisan divides, bolstering momentum ahead of the June 25 verification deadline. Opposition from Bay Area billionaires, who pledged $35 million for competing ballot initiatives and higher-paid signature drives, has intensified alongside reports of preemptive relocations by figures like Sergey Brin, yet has not slowed the pro-tax campaign's organizational edge.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Trader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability that the California Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% excise tax on net wealth exceeding $1 billion—will qualify for the November 2026 ballot, driven by strong signature-gathering progress from SEIU-backed proponents, who reported 25% of the required 874,641 signatures collected by early March. A March UC Berkeley poll showed 50% voter support amid partisan divides, bolstering momentum ahead of the June 25 verification deadline. Opposition from Bay Area billionaires, who pledged $35 million for competing ballot initiatives and higher-paid signature drives, has intensified alongside reports of preemptive relocations by figures like Sergey Brin, yet has not slowed the pro-tax campaign's organizational edge.

Trader consensus prices a 65.5% implied probability that the California Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% excise tax on net wealth exceeding $1 billion—will qualify for the November 2026 ballot, driven by strong signature-gathering progress from SEIU-backed proponents, who reported 25% of the required 874,641 signatures collected by early March. A March UC Berkeley poll showed 50% voter support amid partisan divides, bolstering momentum ahead of the June 25 verification deadline. Opposition from Bay Area billionaires, who pledged $35 million for competing ballot initiatives and higher-paid signature drives, has intensified alongside reports of preemptive relocations by figures like Sergey Brin, yet has not slowed the pro-tax campaign's organizational edge.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 65% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 65¢, the market collectively assigns a 65% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" has generated $84.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" is 65% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 65% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.