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Politics·Midterms

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

Market icon
Politics·Midterms

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

94% chance
Polymarket
NEW
94% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, passes according to Nevada election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Question 6 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Nevada, this market will resolve immediately to "No." If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Nevada, specifically the Nevada Secretary of State (https://www.nvsos.gov).Recent polls, including a University of Nevada, Las Vegas survey from early October showing 62% support for Ballot Question 1, underscore strong voter backing for enshrining abortion rights up to 24 weeks in the Nevada state constitution, building on the measure's 55% approval in 2022 midterms amid post-Dobbs momentum. Minimal opposition spending and weak mobilization from anti-abortion groups contrast with robust Yes campaign efforts, driving trader consensus to price passage at 78.5% ahead of the November 5 ballot. Early voting trends and final polling could influence the closely watched outcome in this battleground state, where simple majority approval advances it to a 2026 ratification vote.

Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, passes according to Nevada election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Question 6 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Nevada, this market will resolve immediately to "No."

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Nevada, specifically the Nevada Secretary of State (https://www.nvsos.gov).
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, passes according to Nevada election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Question 6 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Nevada, this market will resolve immediately to "No." If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Nevada, specifically the Nevada Secretary of State (https://www.nvsos.gov).Recent polls, including a University of Nevada, Las Vegas survey from early October showing 62% support for Ballot Question 1, underscore strong voter backing for enshrining abortion rights up to 24 weeks in the Nevada state constitution, building on the measure's 55% approval in 2022 midterms amid post-Dobbs momentum. Minimal opposition spending and weak mobilization from anti-abortion groups contrast with robust Yes campaign efforts, driving trader consensus to price passage at 78.5% ahead of the November 5 ballot. Early voting trends and final polling could influence the closely watched outcome in this battleground state, where simple majority approval advances it to a 2026 ratification vote.

Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, passes according to Nevada election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Question 6 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Nevada, this market will resolve immediately to "No."

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Nevada, specifically the Nevada Secretary of State (https://www.nvsos.gov).
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 79% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 79¢, the market collectively assigns a 79% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?" is 79% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 79% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.