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Politics·US Election

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri Amendment 3, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved right to reproductive freedom, impose an abortion ban with limited exceptions for rape, incest, fetal anomalies, or medical emergencies, require parental consent for minors' abortions, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors—provisions already enshrined in state law via a ban upheld by the Supreme Court in January 2026 and advanced permanently by the House in February. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters (released March 17) shows narrow 47% support versus 40% opposition and 12% undecided, with the popular transgender care restriction boosting appeal but failing to overcome abortion rights entrenchment; traders' 84.5% consensus against passage reflects skepticism on flipping 2024's pro-choice outcome amid opposition's superior fundraising ($1M raised vs. $159K) and historical hurdles to reversing recent voter-approved amendments.

Missouri Amendment 3, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved right to reproductive freedom, impose an abortion ban with limited exceptions for rape, incest, fetal anomalies, or medical emergencies, require parental consent for minors' abortions, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors—provisions already enshrined in state law via a ban upheld by the Supreme Court in January 2026 and advanced permanently by the House in February. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters (released March 17) shows narrow 47% support versus 40% opposition and 12% undecided, with the popular transgender care restriction boosting appeal but failing to overcome abortion rights entrenchment; traders' 84.5% consensus against passage reflects skepticism on flipping 2024's pro-choice outcome amid opposition's superior fundraising ($1M raised vs. $159K) and historical hurdles to reversing recent voter-approved amendments.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri Amendment 3, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved right to reproductive freedom, impose an abortion ban with limited exceptions for rape, incest, fetal anomalies, or medical emergencies, require parental consent for minors' abortions, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors—provisions already enshrined in state law via a ban upheld by the Supreme Court in January 2026 and advanced permanently by the House in February. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters (released March 17) shows narrow 47% support versus 40% opposition and 12% undecided, with the popular transgender care restriction boosting appeal but failing to overcome abortion rights entrenchment; traders' 84.5% consensus against passage reflects skepticism on flipping 2024's pro-choice outcome amid opposition's superior fundraising ($1M raised vs. $159K) and historical hurdles to reversing recent voter-approved amendments.

Missouri Amendment 3, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, seeks to repeal the 2024 voter-approved right to reproductive freedom, impose an abortion ban with limited exceptions for rape, incest, fetal anomalies, or medical emergencies, require parental consent for minors' abortions, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors—provisions already enshrined in state law via a ban upheld by the Supreme Court in January 2026 and advanced permanently by the House in February. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters (released March 17) shows narrow 47% support versus 40% opposition and 12% undecided, with the popular transgender care restriction boosting appeal but failing to overcome abortion rights entrenchment; traders' 84.5% consensus against passage reflects skepticism on flipping 2024's pro-choice outcome amid opposition's superior fundraising ($1M raised vs. $159K) and historical hurdles to reversing recent voter-approved amendments.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current probability for "Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

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