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Politics·US Election

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
16% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri lawmakers adjourned their 2024 legislative session in May without passing a combined bill imposing new abortion restrictions alongside a ban on gender-affirming care like sex change surgeries and puberty blockers for minors, driving trader consensus to 84.5% against passage. Republicans maintain supermajorities in the House and Senate, with supportive Gov. Mike Parson, yet the measure stalled amid competing priorities such as budget bills and election-year dynamics. Separately, a 2023 state ban on such care for minors remains blocked by a federal injunction from U.S. District Judge Cole Becton in July 2024, under appeal at the Eighth Circuit. Missouri's post-Roe abortion trigger ban persists with narrow exceptions. The 2025 session begins January 8, absent a special session, posing significant procedural barriers to near-term enactment.

Missouri lawmakers adjourned their 2024 legislative session in May without passing a combined bill imposing new abortion restrictions alongside a ban on gender-affirming care like sex change surgeries and puberty blockers for minors, driving trader consensus to 84.5% against passage. Republicans maintain supermajorities in the House and Senate, with supportive Gov. Mike Parson, yet the measure stalled amid competing priorities such as budget bills and election-year dynamics. Separately, a 2023 state ban on such care for minors remains blocked by a federal injunction from U.S. District Judge Cole Becton in July 2024, under appeal at the Eighth Circuit. Missouri's post-Roe abortion trigger ban persists with narrow exceptions. The 2025 session begins January 8, absent a special session, posing significant procedural barriers to near-term enactment.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri lawmakers adjourned their 2024 legislative session in May without passing a combined bill imposing new abortion restrictions alongside a ban on gender-affirming care like sex change surgeries and puberty blockers for minors, driving trader consensus to 84.5% against passage. Republicans maintain supermajorities in the House and Senate, with supportive Gov. Mike Parson, yet the measure stalled amid competing priorities such as budget bills and election-year dynamics. Separately, a 2023 state ban on such care for minors remains blocked by a federal injunction from U.S. District Judge Cole Becton in July 2024, under appeal at the Eighth Circuit. Missouri's post-Roe abortion trigger ban persists with narrow exceptions. The 2025 session begins January 8, absent a special session, posing significant procedural barriers to near-term enactment.

Missouri lawmakers adjourned their 2024 legislative session in May without passing a combined bill imposing new abortion restrictions alongside a ban on gender-affirming care like sex change surgeries and puberty blockers for minors, driving trader consensus to 84.5% against passage. Republicans maintain supermajorities in the House and Senate, with supportive Gov. Mike Parson, yet the measure stalled amid competing priorities such as budget bills and election-year dynamics. Separately, a 2023 state ban on such care for minors remains blocked by a federal injunction from U.S. District Judge Cole Becton in July 2024, under appeal at the Eighth Circuit. Missouri's post-Roe abortion trigger ban persists with narrow exceptions. The 2025 session begins January 8, absent a special session, posing significant procedural barriers to near-term enactment.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current probability for "Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

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