Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, with Paxton favored for a 6–9% win at 23.5% or wider 9%+ margin at 27.4%, while Cornyn trails at 18% for his best 9%+ shot, reflecting recent polls showing Paxton edging the incumbent by 4–6 points among GOP base voters. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and aggressive stance on border security and anti-establishment rhetoric have energized Trump-aligned primary turnout blocs, eroding Cornyn's incumbency edge despite his fundraising leads and committee clout. Dynamics stay close due to Cornyn's donor network and rural Texas strength offsetting Paxton's urban conservative appeal; separation could come from Trump endorsements, fresh battleground polling, or filing deadlines clarifying the field before the March 2026 primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPaxton 9%+ 27.5%
Paxton 6–9% 25%
Cornyn 9%+ 17%
Paxton <3% 10.9%
$35,736 Vol.
$35,736 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
27%
Paxton 6–9%
25%
Paxton 3–6%
10%
Paxton <3%
11%
Cornyn <3%
4%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
17%
Paxton 9%+ 27.5%
Paxton 6–9% 25%
Cornyn 9%+ 17%
Paxton <3% 10.9%
$35,736 Vol.
$35,736 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$5,881 Vol.
27%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,444 Vol.
25%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,739 Vol.
10%
Paxton <3%
$5,787 Vol.
11%
Cornyn <3%
$3,156 Vol.
4%
Cornyn 3–6%
$3,744 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
$3,942 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$5,143 Vol.
17%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, with Paxton favored for a 6–9% win at 23.5% or wider 9%+ margin at 27.4%, while Cornyn trails at 18% for his best 9%+ shot, reflecting recent polls showing Paxton edging the incumbent by 4–6 points among GOP base voters. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and aggressive stance on border security and anti-establishment rhetoric have energized Trump-aligned primary turnout blocs, eroding Cornyn's incumbency edge despite his fundraising leads and committee clout. Dynamics stay close due to Cornyn's donor network and rural Texas strength offsetting Paxton's urban conservative appeal; separation could come from Trump endorsements, fresh battleground polling, or filing deadlines clarifying the field before the March 2026 primary.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$35,736End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, with Paxton favored for a 6–9% win at 23.5% or wider 9%+ margin at 27.4%, while Cornyn trails at 18% for his best 9%+ shot, reflecting recent polls showing Paxton edging the incumbent by 4–6 points among GOP base voters. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and aggressive stance on border security and anti-establishment rhetoric have energized Trump-aligned primary turnout blocs, eroding Cornyn's incumbency edge despite his fundraising leads and committee clout. Dynamics stay close due to Cornyn's donor network and rural Texas strength offsetting Paxton's urban conservative appeal; separation could come from Trump endorsements, fresh battleground polling, or filing deadlines clarifying the field before the March 2026 primary.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$35,736End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, with Paxton favored for a 6–9% win at 23.5% or wider 9%+ margin at 27.4%, while Cornyn trails at 18% for his best 9%+ shot, reflecting recent polls showing Paxton edging the incumbent by 4–6 points among GOP base voters. Paxton's acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial and aggressive stance on border security and anti-establishment rhetoric have energized Trump-aligned primary turnout blocs, eroding Cornyn's incumbency edge despite his fundraising leads and committee clout. Dynamics stay close due to Cornyn's donor network and rural Texas strength offsetting Paxton's urban conservative appeal; separation could come from Trump endorsements, fresh battleground polling, or filing deadlines clarifying the field before the March 2026 primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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