Recent polls, including a March Quantus Insights survey showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 49%-41% among likely Republican primary voters and an Impact Research poll at 53%-37%, have driven trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, implying about 63% overall odds of a Paxton win. Paxton's stronger favorability ratings (+30 net among GOP voters vs. Cornyn's +6) and consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's supporters underscore his edge as the MAGA-aligned challenger against the establishment senator. A potential Donald Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard, with polls indicating it could widen Paxton's lead to 26 points or narrow it if favoring Cornyn; high GOP turnout and fundraising disparities will also shape the closely watched contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPaxton 9%+ 28.7%
Paxton 6–9% 14%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 12.9%
$51,036 Vol.
$51,036 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
29%
Paxton 6–9%
14%
Paxton 3–6%
11%
Paxton <3%
10%
Cornyn <3%
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
6%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
14%
Paxton 9%+ 28.7%
Paxton 6–9% 14%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 12.9%
$51,036 Vol.
$51,036 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$10,050 Vol.
29%
Paxton 6–9%
$5,461 Vol.
14%
Paxton 3–6%
$4,757 Vol.
11%
Paxton <3%
$6,343 Vol.
10%
Cornyn <3%
$4,296 Vol.
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,330 Vol.
6%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,962 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$10,836 Vol.
14%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a March Quantus Insights survey showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 49%-41% among likely Republican primary voters and an Impact Research poll at 53%-37%, have driven trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, implying about 63% overall odds of a Paxton win. Paxton's stronger favorability ratings (+30 net among GOP voters vs. Cornyn's +6) and consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's supporters underscore his edge as the MAGA-aligned challenger against the establishment senator. A potential Donald Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard, with polls indicating it could widen Paxton's lead to 26 points or narrow it if favoring Cornyn; high GOP turnout and fundraising disparities will also shape the closely watched contest.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$51,036End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a March Quantus Insights survey showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 49%-41% among likely Republican primary voters and an Impact Research poll at 53%-37%, have driven trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, implying about 63% overall odds of a Paxton win. Paxton's stronger favorability ratings (+30 net among GOP voters vs. Cornyn's +6) and consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's supporters underscore his edge as the MAGA-aligned challenger against the establishment senator. A potential Donald Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard, with polls indicating it could widen Paxton's lead to 26 points or narrow it if favoring Cornyn; high GOP turnout and fundraising disparities will also shape the closely watched contest.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$51,036End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a March Quantus Insights survey showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 49%-41% among likely Republican primary voters and an Impact Research poll at 53%-37%, have driven trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, implying about 63% overall odds of a Paxton win. Paxton's stronger favorability ratings (+30 net among GOP voters vs. Cornyn's +6) and consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's supporters underscore his edge as the MAGA-aligned challenger against the establishment senator. A potential Donald Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard, with polls indicating it could widen Paxton's lead to 26 points or narrow it if favoring Cornyn; high GOP turnout and fundraising disparities will also shape the closely watched contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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