Market icon
Politics·Primaries

KY-06 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

KY-06 Republican Primary Winner

Ralph Alvarado 44%

Greg Plucinski 4%

Gavin Solomon <1%

Ryan Dotson 0

Polymarket
NEW

Ralph Alvarado 44%

Greg Plucinski 4%

Gavin Solomon <1%

Ryan Dotson 0

Polymarket
NEW

Ralph Alvarado

$0 Vol.

44%

Greg Plucinski

$0 Vol.

4%

Gavin Solomon

$0 Vol.

<1%

Ryan Dotson

$0 Vol.

35%

Adam Perez Arquette

$0 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary at 44.5% implied probability, propelled by a recent poll from the Republican Main Street Partnership showing him ahead 42%-31%-25% over Ryan Dotson and Adam Perez Arquette amid incumbent Andy Barr's unopposed path elsewhere or retirement signals. Alvarado's edge stems from superior fundraising—over $600,000 raised in Q1 2024—and endorsements from Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, solidifying his establishment support in the safe GOP district. Dotson, a conservative podcaster, holds 33% with grassroots Trump voter enthusiasm via social media surges, while Arquette's 28.5% reflects outsider appeal on economic policy. With the May 21 primary nearing, turnout among low-propensity voters and any late endorsements could tip the closely contested race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$0
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary at 44.5% implied probability, propelled by a recent poll from the Republican Main Street Partnership showing him ahead 42%-31%-25% over Ryan Dotson and Adam Perez Arquette amid incumbent Andy Barr's unopposed path elsewhere or retirement signals. Alvarado's edge stems from superior fundraising—over $600,000 raised in Q1 2024—and endorsements from Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, solidifying his establishment support in the safe GOP district. Dotson, a conservative podcaster, holds 33% with grassroots Trump voter enthusiasm via social media surges, while Arquette's 28.5% reflects outsider appeal on economic policy. With the May 21 primary nearing, turnout among low-propensity voters and any late endorsements could tip the closely contested race.

State Sen. Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary at 44.5% implied probability, propelled by a recent poll from the Republican Main Street Partnership showing him ahead 42%-31%-25% over Ryan Dotson and Adam Perez Arquette amid incumbent Andy Barr's unopposed path elsewhere or retirement signals. Alvarado's edge stems from superior fundraising—over $600,000 raised in Q1 2024—and endorsements from Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, solidifying his establishment support in the safe GOP district. Dotson, a conservative podcaster, holds 33% with grassroots Trump voter enthusiasm via social media surges, while Arquette's 28.5% reflects outsider appeal on economic policy. With the May 21 primary nearing, turnout among low-propensity voters and any late endorsements could tip the closely contested race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

65%
Market icon

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

52%
Market icon

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

88%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ralph Alvarado" at 44%, followed by "Ryan Dotson" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" is "Ralph Alvarado" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Dotson" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.