Recent polling from mid-April shows Democratic nominee James Talarico holding narrow leads over both prospective Republican opponents in general-election hypotheticals, though results remain within margins of error and underscore a competitive November contest. Traders assign the highest probability to a Talarico-Paxton matchup because the May 26 Republican primary runoff favors Attorney General Ken Paxton advancing against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, driven by Paxton’s stronger grassroots support and positioning within the state party. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March after defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. With the runoff date approaching, market pricing reflects the expected nominee pairing while acknowledging that either general-election scenario could shift based on turnout and final campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Senate Election Matchup
Texas Senate Election Matchup
Talarico & Paxton 63%
Talarico & Cornyn 37%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Talarico & Hunt <1%
$721,613 Vol.
$721,613 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
63%
Talarico & Cornyn
37%
Crockett & Hunt
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
<1%
Other
<1%
Talarico & Paxton 63%
Talarico & Cornyn 37%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Talarico & Hunt <1%
$721,613 Vol.
$721,613 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
$275,458 Vol.
63%
Talarico & Cornyn
$197,112 Vol.
37%
Crockett & Hunt
$24,730 Vol.
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
$24,058 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
$107,066 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
$65,666 Vol.
<1%
Other
$27,524 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling from mid-April shows Democratic nominee James Talarico holding narrow leads over both prospective Republican opponents in general-election hypotheticals, though results remain within margins of error and underscore a competitive November contest. Traders assign the highest probability to a Talarico-Paxton matchup because the May 26 Republican primary runoff favors Attorney General Ken Paxton advancing against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, driven by Paxton’s stronger grassroots support and positioning within the state party. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March after defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. With the runoff date approaching, market pricing reflects the expected nominee pairing while acknowledging that either general-election scenario could shift based on turnout and final campaign dynamics.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$721,613End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling from mid-April shows Democratic nominee James Talarico holding narrow leads over both prospective Republican opponents in general-election hypotheticals, though results remain within margins of error and underscore a competitive November contest. Traders assign the highest probability to a Talarico-Paxton matchup because the May 26 Republican primary runoff favors Attorney General Ken Paxton advancing against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, driven by Paxton’s stronger grassroots support and positioning within the state party. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March after defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. With the runoff date approaching, market pricing reflects the expected nominee pairing while acknowledging that either general-election scenario could shift based on turnout and final campaign dynamics.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$721,613End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-April shows Democratic nominee James Talarico holding narrow leads over both prospective Republican opponents in general-election hypotheticals, though results remain within margins of error and underscore a competitive November contest. Traders assign the highest probability to a Talarico-Paxton matchup because the May 26 Republican primary runoff favors Attorney General Ken Paxton advancing against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, driven by Paxton’s stronger grassroots support and positioning within the state party. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March after defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. With the runoff date approaching, market pricing reflects the expected nominee pairing while acknowledging that either general-election scenario could shift based on turnout and final campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions