The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 under Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended indefinitely pending a comprehensive proposal, remains highly fragile amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump has publicly described the truce as being on "life support," citing intermittent exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's continued de facto restrictions on maritime traffic, and a US naval blockade that persists despite the pause in major strikes. Recent developments include Israel's expanded airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where a parallel ceasefire has been extended by 45 days through mid-June, alongside US intelligence assessments that Iran has reconstituted much of its missile infrastructure and mobile launchers during the lull. Diplomatic efforts continue through Gulf intermediaries and scheduled talks in late May and early June, but both sides retain significant military options, including potential escalation triggers tied to nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief, and control over key waterways. These dynamics highlight the ceasefire's dependence on sustained restraint and progress in bilateral proposals before any broader agreement materializes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
$18,413 Wol.
May 20
96%
May 21
87%
May 22
72%
May 24
68%
May 27
63%
May 31
51%
June 7
38%
June 15
40%
June 30
34%
July 31
29%
December 31
24%
$18,413 Wol.
May 20
$4,711 Wol.
96%
May 21
$2,691 Wol.
87%
May 22
$3,906 Wol.
72%
May 24
$528 Wol.
68%
May 27
$3,833 Wol.
63%
May 31
$112 Wol.
51%
June 7
$975 Wol.
38%
June 15
$360 Wol.
40%
June 30
$1,481 Wol.
34%
July 31
$292 Wol.
29%
December 31
$750 Wol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 under Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended indefinitely pending a comprehensive proposal, remains highly fragile amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump has publicly described the truce as being on "life support," citing intermittent exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's continued de facto restrictions on maritime traffic, and a US naval blockade that persists despite the pause in major strikes. Recent developments include Israel's expanded airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where a parallel ceasefire has been extended by 45 days through mid-June, alongside US intelligence assessments that Iran has reconstituted much of its missile infrastructure and mobile launchers during the lull. Diplomatic efforts continue through Gulf intermediaries and scheduled talks in late May and early June, but both sides retain significant military options, including potential escalation triggers tied to nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief, and control over key waterways. These dynamics highlight the ceasefire's dependence on sustained restraint and progress in bilateral proposals before any broader agreement materializes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,413Rynek otwarty
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 under Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended indefinitely pending a comprehensive proposal, remains highly fragile amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump has publicly described the truce as being on "life support," citing intermittent exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's continued de facto restrictions on maritime traffic, and a US naval blockade that persists despite the pause in major strikes. Recent developments include Israel's expanded airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where a parallel ceasefire has been extended by 45 days through mid-June, alongside US intelligence assessments that Iran has reconstituted much of its missile infrastructure and mobile launchers during the lull. Diplomatic efforts continue through Gulf intermediaries and scheduled talks in late May and early June, but both sides retain significant military options, including potential escalation triggers tied to nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief, and control over key waterways. These dynamics highlight the ceasefire's dependence on sustained restraint and progress in bilateral proposals before any broader agreement materializes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$18,413Rynek otwarty
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 under Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended indefinitely pending a comprehensive proposal, remains highly fragile amid ongoing regional tensions. President Trump has publicly described the truce as being on "life support," citing intermittent exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's continued de facto restrictions on maritime traffic, and a US naval blockade that persists despite the pause in major strikes. Recent developments include Israel's expanded airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where a parallel ceasefire has been extended by 45 days through mid-June, alongside US intelligence assessments that Iran has reconstituted much of its missile infrastructure and mobile launchers during the lull. Diplomatic efforts continue through Gulf intermediaries and scheduled talks in late May and early June, but both sides retain significant military options, including potential escalation triggers tied to nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief, and control over key waterways. These dynamics highlight the ceasefire's dependence on sustained restraint and progress in bilateral proposals before any broader agreement materializes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania