US-Iran negotiations to end the seven-month conflict center on disposing of Iran's remaining enriched uranium stockpile—estimated at over 200 kg at up to 60% purity, much of it potentially entombed at damaged sites like Isfahan following 2025-2026 US-Israeli strikes. Recent statements from US Vice President JD Vance emphasize that Tehran must deliver a "meaningful" cut in enrichment capacity for any final agreement, while the June 2026 memorandum of understanding defers detailed terms on stockpile destruction or removal under IAEA oversight. Trader consensus prices a low probability of US acquisition by year-end, reflecting Iran's refusal to grant inspectors access, uncertainty over exact material locations, and the absence of verified commitments amid ongoing diplomatic talks. Key near-term catalysts include any resumption of IAEA visits or further negotiation deadlines that could clarify disposal mechanisms.