Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict center on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, much of it stored underground at Isfahan following 2025-2026 strikes that damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Late October 2026 draft frameworks propose transferring the material to a third country or diluting it in exchange for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, with China potentially as guarantor and talks possibly in Doha. Iranian officials have rejected any transfer or removal, describing the stockpile as a national asset and insisting on retention under NPT rights, while US officials including Vice President JD Vance have demanded verifiable cuts to enrichment capacity and inspector access. These negotiations, ongoing into early November amid threats of further strikes, directly shape trader assessments of whether the US secures the uranium through agreement or other means before any resolution deadline.
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