This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliation have sustained elevated military alert levels and repeated airspace restrictions across the Tehran Flight Information Region. A recent NOTAM issued in late May closed the western sector to most civil operations through May 25 amid reports of possible renewed strikes and stalled truce talks, even after the April ceasefire and partial eastern reopenings for limited overflights. Traders assess risks from continued diplomatic mediation efforts, regional aviation advisories, and any fresh escalations that could extend or broaden closures before mid-year resolution windows. Historical precedents of short-term NOTAMs tied to missile activity and air defense operations inform assessments of further shutdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Zakwestionowany
Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Zakwestionowany
Ostateczna weryfikacja
Ongoing tensions following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliation have sustained elevated military alert levels and repeated airspace restrictions across the Tehran Flight Information Region. A recent NOTAM issued in late May closed the western sector to most civil operations through May 25 amid reports of possible renewed strikes and stalled truce talks, even after the April ceasefire and partial eastern reopenings for limited overflights. Traders assess risks from continued diplomatic mediation efforts, regional aviation advisories, and any fresh escalations that could extend or broaden closures before mid-year resolution windows. Historical precedents of short-term NOTAMs tied to missile activity and air defense operations inform assessments of further shutdowns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
May 23 2026
Iran confirms major airspace closure affecting multiple airports
May 24 surges to 99%90%
By May 23, reports confirmed that Iran initiated a major closure of its airspace affecting commercial flights across multiple key airports, meeting the market's criteria for a broad suspension not due to weather. This confirmation caused the market prices for all resolution dates to jump to near 100%.
May 22 2026
Iran reopens airspace after five-hour closure; five carriers resume services
After a brief five-hour airspace closure, Iran reopened its airspace with five carriers resuming services, marking a significant market event. This reopening caused a sharp price drop across all outcomes.
May 22 2026
Indian airlines issue advisories amid ongoing Iran airspace disruptions
May 31 surges to 96%58%
In mid-May 2026, Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo issued advisories warning passengers of flight delays and rerouting due to continued closure or restrictions of Iranian airspace amid regional tensions. These advisories indicate ongoing operational disruptions consistent with a major airspace closure or severe restrictions affecting multiple major Iranian airports.
May 22 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport after a period of closure, indicating a partial reopening of Iranian airspace. This partial reopening does not constitute a broad closure, so it does not qualify as a 'Yes' event under market criteria.
May 22 2026
Iran issues NOTAM closing most airports in western Tehran FIR until May 25
May 24 drops to 14%12%
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, allowing operations only during daylight hours at eight specific airports. This partial closure raised concerns about a major airspace shutdown but did not fully meet the market's criteria for a broad closure affecting multiple key airports across Iran.
May 22 2026
Iran closes western airspace amid rising US tensions, restricting flights to daylight hours
May 24 drops to 14%12%
Iran temporarily closed its western airspace from May 22 to May 25, suspending all civil flight permits in the western sector of the Tehran FIR, with only eight airports operational under daylight-only restrictions. This closure was amid heightened regional tensions and security concerns but was limited in scope and duration, affecting market expectations for a full major closure.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat against US amid crackdown on protests
May 24 plunges to 21%18%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the United States, warning of retaliation if attacked. This diplomatic escalation contributed to market volatility, with prices fluctuating from 3% to 28% over the May 20-21 period.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat to US amid crackdown on protests
May 21 plunges to 4%15%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the U.S., warning of retaliation if attacked. This heightened tensions and briefly increased the market price.
May 19 2026
Trump administration confirms El Paso airspace closure due to cartel drone threat
The Trump administration confirmed the FAA closure of El Paso airspace was due to Mexican cartel drones breaching the airspace, with the Pentagon using anti-drone laser technology to disable them. This was a U.S. airspace closure, not Iranian, and did not affect the Iran market.
May 16 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport amid ceasefire
May 31 drops to 30%11%
Iran resumed commercial flights from Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began, signaling a de-escalation and lowering market expectations for a major airspace closure by the end of May.
May 15 2026
Iran extends airspace closure amid rising protests and regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 49%12%
Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most flights except those with official permission amid domestic protests and heightened regional tensions. This closure disrupted many international flights and increased concerns about further restrictions, influencing market expectations of a major closure.
May 14 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms flights back in operation
May 21 drops to 39%7%
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on Thursday morning that flights were back in operation over the country, leading to a price drop from 46% to 39% on May 21, 2026.
May 13 2026
Iran issues notice temporarily closing airspace to some flights amid protests
May 18 dips to 10%4%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission, amid nationwide protests and heightened tensions. This partial closure was significant but did not qualify as a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.
May 13 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace to most flights amid protests, then reopens
June 30 plunges to 47%29%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission amid nationwide protests. The closure was short-lived and flights resumed shortly after, reducing the likelihood of a major prolonged closure.
May 10 2026
Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
May 9 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
May 7 2026
Iran reopens airspace and resumes commercial flights after temporary closure
May 31 jumps to 33%5%
Following the temporary closure during protests, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed flights resumed over the country, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure and causing market prices for "Yes" to decline.
May 6 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms reopening of airspace after brief closure
May 18 dips to 12%2%
Following a brief closure of Iranian airspace to most flights amid protests and U.S. tensions, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed that flights resumed over the country by May 6, 2026. This reopening reduced the likelihood of a major airspace closure in the near term, impacting market prices for May 18 and May 21 outcomes.
May 5 2026
UAE partially closes airspace after Iranian missile attack
May 27 surges to 98%67%
The UAE's GCAA partially closed its airspace until at least 11 May 2026, restricting traffic to narrow approved corridors. This regional closure amplified aviation disruptions and contributed to the market's rising Yes prices.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE
May 24 surges to 96%70%
Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the UAE, prompting immediate regional aviation disruptions and the UAE's partial airspace closure. This major escalation directly impacted the market's Yes probability across all outcome dates.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting partial airspace closures in Gulf
June 30 plunges to 36%24%
On May 4, Iran launched multiple missile and drone attacks on the UAE, causing the UAE to partially close its airspace until at least May 11. This escalation led to flight cancellations and rerouting by several airlines but did not involve a major closure of Iranian airspace itself. The event increased regional tensions and affected market sentiment about potential Iranian airspace closures.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missiles and drones at UAE; UAE partially closes airspace until 11 May
May 24 drops to 17%9%
Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE prompted the UAE to partially close its airspace until 11 May 2026, causing widespread flight disruptions and cancellations. This regional escalation contributed to market volatility.
May 2 2026
Iran Civil Aviation confirms flights back in operation after brief NOTAM
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on May 2 that flights were back in operation over the country, following the initial NOTAM that had been extended through 10:30 p.m. ET. This reopening caused the market price to drop to 0% on May 22.
May 2 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace amid protests and unrest
May 31 rises to 40%4%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except those with prior permission, amid widespread protests and a crackdown. This raised market expectations for a major closure, reflected in a temporary price increase for the "Yes" outcome.
May 1 2026
Iran issues NOTAM closing airspace to most flights amid protests
Iran issued a notice to pilots banning small private aircraft from flying, with exceptions for oil industry and medical flights, as protests over 2,000+ deaths intensified. This partial closure did not meet the 'major closure' threshold requiring suspension of at least two major airports.
May 1 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
May 21 plunges to 4%34%
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's main airport after a two-month war with the U.S. and Israel, ending the major airspace closure period. This significantly reduced the likelihood of a Yes resolution.
May 1 2026
Iran briefly issued NOTAM closing airspace to most flights
May 27 jumps to 46%7%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from Iran's aviation authorities. This triggered a small price increase from 39% to 46% on May 14, 2026, before the market settled.
May 1 2026
No major airspace closure reported in Iran amid ongoing tensions
May 21 plunges to 2%17%
Despite ongoing regional tensions and previous temporary airspace restrictions in earlier months, no official Iranian aviation authority announcements or credible reports indicated a broad closure of Iranian airspace affecting commercial flights in May 2026. This lack of closure contributed to low market prices for near-term closure outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliation have sustained elevated military alert levels and repeated airspace restrictions across the Tehran Flight Information Region. A recent NOTAM issued in late May closed the western sector to most civil operations through May 25 amid reports of possible renewed strikes and stalled truce talks, even after the April ceasefire and partial eastern reopenings for limited overflights. Traders assess risks from continued diplomatic mediation efforts, regional aviation advisories, and any fresh escalations that could extend or broaden closures before mid-year resolution windows. Historical precedents of short-term NOTAMs tied to missile activity and air defense operations inform assessments of further shutdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Zakwestionowany
Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Zakwestionowany
Ostateczna weryfikacja
Ongoing tensions following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliation have sustained elevated military alert levels and repeated airspace restrictions across the Tehran Flight Information Region. A recent NOTAM issued in late May closed the western sector to most civil operations through May 25 amid reports of possible renewed strikes and stalled truce talks, even after the April ceasefire and partial eastern reopenings for limited overflights. Traders assess risks from continued diplomatic mediation efforts, regional aviation advisories, and any fresh escalations that could extend or broaden closures before mid-year resolution windows. Historical precedents of short-term NOTAMs tied to missile activity and air defense operations inform assessments of further shutdowns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
May 23 2026
Iran confirms major airspace closure affecting multiple airports
May 24 surges to 99%90%
By May 23, reports confirmed that Iran initiated a major closure of its airspace affecting commercial flights across multiple key airports, meeting the market's criteria for a broad suspension not due to weather. This confirmation caused the market prices for all resolution dates to jump to near 100%.
May 22 2026
Iran reopens airspace after five-hour closure; five carriers resume services
After a brief five-hour airspace closure, Iran reopened its airspace with five carriers resuming services, marking a significant market event. This reopening caused a sharp price drop across all outcomes.
May 22 2026
Indian airlines issue advisories amid ongoing Iran airspace disruptions
May 31 surges to 96%58%
In mid-May 2026, Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo issued advisories warning passengers of flight delays and rerouting due to continued closure or restrictions of Iranian airspace amid regional tensions. These advisories indicate ongoing operational disruptions consistent with a major airspace closure or severe restrictions affecting multiple major Iranian airports.
May 22 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport after a period of closure, indicating a partial reopening of Iranian airspace. This partial reopening does not constitute a broad closure, so it does not qualify as a 'Yes' event under market criteria.
May 22 2026
Iran issues NOTAM closing most airports in western Tehran FIR until May 25
May 24 drops to 14%12%
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, allowing operations only during daylight hours at eight specific airports. This partial closure raised concerns about a major airspace shutdown but did not fully meet the market's criteria for a broad closure affecting multiple key airports across Iran.
May 22 2026
Iran closes western airspace amid rising US tensions, restricting flights to daylight hours
May 24 drops to 14%12%
Iran temporarily closed its western airspace from May 22 to May 25, suspending all civil flight permits in the western sector of the Tehran FIR, with only eight airports operational under daylight-only restrictions. This closure was amid heightened regional tensions and security concerns but was limited in scope and duration, affecting market expectations for a full major closure.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat against US amid crackdown on protests
May 24 plunges to 21%18%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the United States, warning of retaliation if attacked. This diplomatic escalation contributed to market volatility, with prices fluctuating from 3% to 28% over the May 20-21 period.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat to US amid crackdown on protests
May 21 plunges to 4%15%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the U.S., warning of retaliation if attacked. This heightened tensions and briefly increased the market price.
May 19 2026
Trump administration confirms El Paso airspace closure due to cartel drone threat
The Trump administration confirmed the FAA closure of El Paso airspace was due to Mexican cartel drones breaching the airspace, with the Pentagon using anti-drone laser technology to disable them. This was a U.S. airspace closure, not Iranian, and did not affect the Iran market.
May 16 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport amid ceasefire
May 31 drops to 30%11%
Iran resumed commercial flights from Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began, signaling a de-escalation and lowering market expectations for a major airspace closure by the end of May.
May 15 2026
Iran extends airspace closure amid rising protests and regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 49%12%
Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most flights except those with official permission amid domestic protests and heightened regional tensions. This closure disrupted many international flights and increased concerns about further restrictions, influencing market expectations of a major closure.
May 14 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms flights back in operation
May 21 drops to 39%7%
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on Thursday morning that flights were back in operation over the country, leading to a price drop from 46% to 39% on May 21, 2026.
May 13 2026
Iran issues notice temporarily closing airspace to some flights amid protests
May 18 dips to 10%4%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission, amid nationwide protests and heightened tensions. This partial closure was significant but did not qualify as a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.
May 13 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace to most flights amid protests, then reopens
June 30 plunges to 47%29%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission amid nationwide protests. The closure was short-lived and flights resumed shortly after, reducing the likelihood of a major prolonged closure.
May 10 2026
Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
May 9 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
May 7 2026
Iran reopens airspace and resumes commercial flights after temporary closure
May 31 jumps to 33%5%
Following the temporary closure during protests, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed flights resumed over the country, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure and causing market prices for "Yes" to decline.
May 6 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms reopening of airspace after brief closure
May 18 dips to 12%2%
Following a brief closure of Iranian airspace to most flights amid protests and U.S. tensions, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed that flights resumed over the country by May 6, 2026. This reopening reduced the likelihood of a major airspace closure in the near term, impacting market prices for May 18 and May 21 outcomes.
May 5 2026
UAE partially closes airspace after Iranian missile attack
May 27 surges to 98%67%
The UAE's GCAA partially closed its airspace until at least 11 May 2026, restricting traffic to narrow approved corridors. This regional closure amplified aviation disruptions and contributed to the market's rising Yes prices.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE
May 24 surges to 96%70%
Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the UAE, prompting immediate regional aviation disruptions and the UAE's partial airspace closure. This major escalation directly impacted the market's Yes probability across all outcome dates.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting partial airspace closures in Gulf
June 30 plunges to 36%24%
On May 4, Iran launched multiple missile and drone attacks on the UAE, causing the UAE to partially close its airspace until at least May 11. This escalation led to flight cancellations and rerouting by several airlines but did not involve a major closure of Iranian airspace itself. The event increased regional tensions and affected market sentiment about potential Iranian airspace closures.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missiles and drones at UAE; UAE partially closes airspace until 11 May
May 24 drops to 17%9%
Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE prompted the UAE to partially close its airspace until 11 May 2026, causing widespread flight disruptions and cancellations. This regional escalation contributed to market volatility.
May 2 2026
Iran Civil Aviation confirms flights back in operation after brief NOTAM
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on May 2 that flights were back in operation over the country, following the initial NOTAM that had been extended through 10:30 p.m. ET. This reopening caused the market price to drop to 0% on May 22.
May 2 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace amid protests and unrest
May 31 rises to 40%4%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except those with prior permission, amid widespread protests and a crackdown. This raised market expectations for a major closure, reflected in a temporary price increase for the "Yes" outcome.
May 1 2026
Iran issues NOTAM closing airspace to most flights amid protests
Iran issued a notice to pilots banning small private aircraft from flying, with exceptions for oil industry and medical flights, as protests over 2,000+ deaths intensified. This partial closure did not meet the 'major closure' threshold requiring suspension of at least two major airports.
May 1 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
May 21 plunges to 4%34%
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's main airport after a two-month war with the U.S. and Israel, ending the major airspace closure period. This significantly reduced the likelihood of a Yes resolution.
May 1 2026
Iran briefly issued NOTAM closing airspace to most flights
May 27 jumps to 46%7%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from Iran's aviation authorities. This triggered a small price increase from 39% to 46% on May 14, 2026, before the market settled.
May 1 2026
No major airspace closure reported in Iran amid ongoing tensions
May 21 plunges to 2%17%
Despite ongoing regional tensions and previous temporary airspace restrictions in earlier months, no official Iranian aviation authority announcements or credible reports indicated a broad closure of Iranian airspace affecting commercial flights in May 2026. This lack of closure contributed to low market prices for near-term closure outcomes.
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"Iran closes its airspace by...?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 11 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "June 30" z 32%, za nim "June 15" z 26%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 32¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 32% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Iran closes its airspace by...?" wygenerował $35 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku May 1, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Iran closes its airspace by...?", przeglądaj 11 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "Iran closes its airspace by...?" jest "June 30" z 32%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 32% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "June 15" z 26%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Iran closes its airspace by...?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Iran closes its airspace by...?". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $35 million wolumenu na "Iran closes its airspace by...?", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Iran closes its airspace by...?", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 32¢ za "June 30" na rynku "Iran closes its airspace by...?" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 32% szansy na to, że "June 30" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 32¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 68¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "Iran closes its airspace by...?" jest zaplanowany na rozstrzygnięcie około May 31, 2026. Handel pozostaje otwarty, a kursy będą się zmieniać w miarę pojawiania się nowych informacji. Dokładny czas rozstrzygnięcia zależy od tego, kiedy oficjalny wynik stanie się dostępny, zgodnie z sekcją "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek "Iran closes its airspace by...?" ma aktywną społeczność z 1,662 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na co postawiły największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Iran closes its airspace by...?". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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