Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations for a nuclear agreement, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz reopening drive the 81.5% trader consensus that no invasion will occur before 2027. These talks follow the April 2026 ceasefire that ended weeks of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes launched in February, with recent reports of a draft memorandum of understanding advancing in late May. Administration statements emphasize diplomacy over ground operations amid logistical barriers and regional costs, consistent with prior patterns of targeted strikes rather than territorial control. Limited recent U.S. actions against missile sites have not altered the de-escalation trajectory. A collapse in talks or major escalation could shift probabilities within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.