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Elections·New York Primary

TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·New York Primary

TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner

Steve Cohen 57%

Justin Pearson 38%

DeVante Hill 5.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Steve Cohen 57%

Justin Pearson 38%

DeVante Hill 5.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Steve Cohen

$4,184 Vol.

57%

Justin Pearson

$1,327 Vol.

38%

DeVante Hill

$363 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen maintains a trader consensus edge at 57.5% implied probability to win the Tennessee 9th District Democratic primary on August 6, driven by his two-decade tenure, strong fundraising, and local establishment support in the safely Democratic, majority-Black Memphis-based district. Challenger state Rep. Justin Pearson, at 37.5%, has gained traction from a February Data for Progress poll showing a 45-44% virtual tie—sponsored by his progressive backers—and recent endorsements including Collective PAC on April 13, highlighting generational tensions between the 76-year-old Cohen and 35-year-old Pearson of the Tennessee Three. Community activist DeVante Hill lags at 5.3%, with turnout among key voting blocs and upcoming debates poised to influence the closely contested closed primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,875
End Date
Aug 6, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen maintains a trader consensus edge at 57.5% implied probability to win the Tennessee 9th District Democratic primary on August 6, driven by his two-decade tenure, strong fundraising, and local establishment support in the safely Democratic, majority-Black Memphis-based district. Challenger state Rep. Justin Pearson, at 37.5%, has gained traction from a February Data for Progress poll showing a 45-44% virtual tie—sponsored by his progressive backers—and recent endorsements including Collective PAC on April 13, highlighting generational tensions between the 76-year-old Cohen and 35-year-old Pearson of the Tennessee Three. Community activist DeVante Hill lags at 5.3%, with turnout among key voting blocs and upcoming debates poised to influence the closely contested closed primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,875
End Date
Aug 6, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Cohen" at 57%, followed by "Justin Pearson" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 10, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Steve Cohen" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Justin Pearson" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.