Trader consensus favors low turnout in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.6–1.5 million votes, reflecting historical runoff drop-offs of 60–80% from initial primaries amid voter fatigue. The March 3 primary shattered records at roughly 2.3 million ballots statewide, driven by the high-profile Cornyn-Paxton contest, but traders anticipate demobilization without fresh catalysts. Recent polls show Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, sustained by base turnout dynamics—establishment vs. populist wings—yet President Trump's withheld endorsement has curbed mobilization rallies. Early voting begins May 16, where initial data or a Trump signal could widen spreads toward higher buckets if ground games intensify in battleground areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTurnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
2.4–2.7M 24.0%
0.6–0.9M 23%
1.2–1.5M 19%
<0.6M 16%
$34,521 Vol.
$34,521 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
16%
0.6–0.9M
23%
0.9–1.2M
18%
1.2–1.5M
19%
1.5–1.8M
11%
1.8–2.1M
16%
2.1–2.4M
14%
2.4–2.7M
14%
2.7M+
10%
2.4–2.7M 24.0%
0.6–0.9M 23%
1.2–1.5M 19%
<0.6M 16%
$34,521 Vol.
$34,521 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
$463 Vol.
16%
0.6–0.9M
$29,665 Vol.
23%
0.9–1.2M
$394 Vol.
18%
1.2–1.5M
$3,708 Vol.
19%
1.5–1.8M
$15 Vol.
11%
1.8–2.1M
$58 Vol.
16%
2.1–2.4M
$16 Vol.
14%
2.4–2.7M
$136 Vol.
14%
2.7M+
$67 Vol.
10%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors low turnout in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.6–1.5 million votes, reflecting historical runoff drop-offs of 60–80% from initial primaries amid voter fatigue. The March 3 primary shattered records at roughly 2.3 million ballots statewide, driven by the high-profile Cornyn-Paxton contest, but traders anticipate demobilization without fresh catalysts. Recent polls show Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, sustained by base turnout dynamics—establishment vs. populist wings—yet President Trump's withheld endorsement has curbed mobilization rallies. Early voting begins May 16, where initial data or a Trump signal could widen spreads toward higher buckets if ground games intensify in battleground areas.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$34,521End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors low turnout in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.6–1.5 million votes, reflecting historical runoff drop-offs of 60–80% from initial primaries amid voter fatigue. The March 3 primary shattered records at roughly 2.3 million ballots statewide, driven by the high-profile Cornyn-Paxton contest, but traders anticipate demobilization without fresh catalysts. Recent polls show Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, sustained by base turnout dynamics—establishment vs. populist wings—yet President Trump's withheld endorsement has curbed mobilization rallies. Early voting begins May 16, where initial data or a Trump signal could widen spreads toward higher buckets if ground games intensify in battleground areas.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$34,521End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors low turnout in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 0.6–1.5 million votes, reflecting historical runoff drop-offs of 60–80% from initial primaries amid voter fatigue. The March 3 primary shattered records at roughly 2.3 million ballots statewide, driven by the high-profile Cornyn-Paxton contest, but traders anticipate demobilization without fresh catalysts. Recent polls show Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, sustained by base turnout dynamics—establishment vs. populist wings—yet President Trump's withheld endorsement has curbed mobilization rallies. Early voting begins May 16, where initial data or a Trump signal could widen spreads toward higher buckets if ground games intensify in battleground areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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