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Politics·Texas Senate

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Market icon
Politics·Texas Senate

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

0.6–0.9M 48%

1.2–1.5M 27%

2.4–2.7M 24.0%

2.1–2.4M 18%

Polymarket
NEW

0.6–0.9M 48%

1.2–1.5M 27%

2.4–2.7M 24.0%

2.1–2.4M 18%

Polymarket
NEW

<0.6M

$0 Vol.

15%

0.6–0.9M

$0 Vol.

39%

0.9–1.2M

$0 Vol.

21%

1.2–1.5M

$0 Vol.

27%

1.5–1.8M

$0 Vol.

17%

1.8–2.1M

$0 Vol.

16%

2.1–2.4M

$0 Vol.

18%

2.4–2.7M

$0 Vol.

14%

2.7M+

$0 Vol.

8%

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward modest turnout of 600,000–900,000 voters (38.5%) in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting historical patterns where runoffs drop sharply—often 50–70%—from initial primary levels due to voter fatigue after the competitive March 3 contest. Elevated GOP primary turnout, though surpassed by Democrats, sets a high baseline unlikely to repeat without broader ballot races. Recent polls, including March 24 surveys showing Ken Paxton edging John Cornyn 42%–39% and a 53%–37% Paxton lead, signal base enthusiasm for Paxton but intra-party divisions limiting mobilization. President Trump's pending endorsement and Sen. Ted Cruz's neutral stance yesterday add uncertainty, with early voting May 18–22 poised to influence final probabilities amid high campaign spending.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward modest turnout of 600,000–900,000 voters (38.5%) in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting historical patterns where runoffs drop sharply—often 50–70%—from initial primary levels due to voter fatigue after the competitive March 3 contest. Elevated GOP primary turnout, though surpassed by Democrats, sets a high baseline unlikely to repeat without broader ballot races. Recent polls, including March 24 surveys showing Ken Paxton edging John Cornyn 42%–39% and a 53%–37% Paxton lead, signal base enthusiasm for Paxton but intra-party divisions limiting mobilization. President Trump's pending endorsement and Sen. Ted Cruz's neutral stance yesterday add uncertainty, with early voting May 18–22 poised to influence final probabilities amid high campaign spending.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward modest turnout of 600,000–900,000 voters (38.5%) in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting historical patterns where runoffs drop sharply—often 50–70%—from initial primary levels due to voter fatigue after the competitive March 3 contest. Elevated GOP primary turnout, though surpassed by Democrats, sets a high baseline unlikely to repeat without broader ballot races. Recent polls, including March 24 surveys showing Ken Paxton edging John Cornyn 42%–39% and a 53%–37% Paxton lead, signal base enthusiasm for Paxton but intra-party divisions limiting mobilization. President Trump's pending endorsement and Sen. Ted Cruz's neutral stance yesterday add uncertainty, with early voting May 18–22 poised to influence final probabilities amid high campaign spending.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward modest turnout of 600,000–900,000 voters (38.5%) in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting historical patterns where runoffs drop sharply—often 50–70%—from initial primary levels due to voter fatigue after the competitive March 3 contest. Elevated GOP primary turnout, though surpassed by Democrats, sets a high baseline unlikely to repeat without broader ballot races. Recent polls, including March 24 surveys showing Ken Paxton edging John Cornyn 42%–39% and a 53%–37% Paxton lead, signal base enthusiasm for Paxton but intra-party divisions limiting mobilization. President Trump's pending endorsement and Sen. Ted Cruz's neutral stance yesterday add uncertainty, with early voting May 18–22 poised to influence final probabilities amid high campaign spending.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.6–0.9M" at 39%, followed by "1.2–1.5M" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff" is "0.6–0.9M" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.2–1.5M" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.