Trader consensus in the Colorado Republican gubernatorial primary heavily favors Victor Marx at 56% implied probability, propelled by recent internal polling showing him ahead among likely voters and robust grassroots fundraising surpassing $1.2 million. Barbara Kirkmeyer trails at 34%, bolstered by her state Senate experience and endorsements from party insiders, though her urban-suburban support lags. Lower-tier candidates like Daniel Thomas (7.5%) and Greg Lopez (3.4%) draw from niche conservative bases but lack broad momentum. Recent catalysts include a July poll widening Marx's lead post-debate and Kirkmeyer's legislative push on tax cuts, with the June 2026 primary looming amid shifting donor dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVictor Marx 56%
Barbara Kirkmeyer 29%
Greg Lopez 3.7%
Bob Brinkerhoff 3.4%
$11,266 Vol.
$11,266 Vol.
Victor Marx
56%
Barbara Kirkmeyer
34%
Greg Lopez
4%
Bob Brinkerhoff
3%
Brycen Garrison
3%
Jon Gray-Ginsberg
3%
Joshua Griffin
3%
Scott Bottoms
2%
Mark Baisley
1%
Daniel Thomas
8%
Will McBride
1%
Robert Moore
1%
Jason Clark
1%
Jason Mikesell
<1%
Stevan Gess
<1%
Victor Marx 56%
Barbara Kirkmeyer 29%
Greg Lopez 3.7%
Bob Brinkerhoff 3.4%
$11,266 Vol.
$11,266 Vol.
Victor Marx
56%
Barbara Kirkmeyer
34%
Greg Lopez
4%
Bob Brinkerhoff
3%
Brycen Garrison
3%
Jon Gray-Ginsberg
3%
Joshua Griffin
3%
Scott Bottoms
2%
Mark Baisley
1%
Daniel Thomas
8%
Will McBride
1%
Robert Moore
1%
Jason Clark
1%
Jason Mikesell
<1%
Stevan Gess
<1%
If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Colorado Republican gubernatorial primary heavily favors Victor Marx at 56% implied probability, propelled by recent internal polling showing him ahead among likely voters and robust grassroots fundraising surpassing $1.2 million. Barbara Kirkmeyer trails at 34%, bolstered by her state Senate experience and endorsements from party insiders, though her urban-suburban support lags. Lower-tier candidates like Daniel Thomas (7.5%) and Greg Lopez (3.4%) draw from niche conservative bases but lack broad momentum. Recent catalysts include a July poll widening Marx's lead post-debate and Kirkmeyer's legislative push on tax cuts, with the June 2026 primary looming amid shifting donor dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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