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Elections·South Dakota Primary

SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·South Dakota Primary

SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner

Scott Schlagel 9%

Billy Mawhiney 2.0%

Nikki Gronli 0

Polymarket
NEW

Scott Schlagel 9%

Billy Mawhiney 2.0%

Nikki Gronli 0

Polymarket
NEW

Scott Schlagel

$0 Vol.

9%

Billy Mawhiney

$0 Vol.

2%

Nikki Gronli

$0 Vol.

54%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Nikki Gronli leads trader consensus at 52.5% in the South Dakota at-large Democratic primary for U.S. House, driven by her superior fundraising—exceeding Scott Schlagel's reported $25,000—and endorsements including former House Majority Leader Billie Sutton, alongside her background as ex-USDA Rural Development State Director and South Dakota Democratic Party vice chair. Billy Mawhiney's February withdrawal from the race, after entering first last August, has consolidated backing for Gronli, dropping his odds to 2%, while Schlagel lingers at 10.5% as a lower-profile former correctional officer who filed early. With the March 31 petition filing deadline approaching for the June 2 primary, the field appears set barring late entrants.

Nikki Gronli leads trader consensus at 52.5% in the South Dakota at-large Democratic primary for U.S. House, driven by her superior fundraising—exceeding Scott Schlagel's reported $25,000—and endorsements including former House Majority Leader Billie Sutton, alongside her background as ex-USDA Rural Development State Director and South Dakota Democratic Party vice chair. Billy Mawhiney's February withdrawal from the race, after entering first last August, has consolidated backing for Gronli, dropping his odds to 2%, while Schlagel lingers at 10.5% as a lower-profile former correctional officer who filed early. With the March 31 petition filing deadline approaching for the June 2 primary, the field appears set barring late entrants.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Nikki Gronli leads trader consensus at 52.5% in the South Dakota at-large Democratic primary for U.S. House, driven by her superior fundraising—exceeding Scott Schlagel's reported $25,000—and endorsements including former House Majority Leader Billie Sutton, alongside her background as ex-USDA Rural Development State Director and South Dakota Democratic Party vice chair. Billy Mawhiney's February withdrawal from the race, after entering first last August, has consolidated backing for Gronli, dropping his odds to 2%, while Schlagel lingers at 10.5% as a lower-profile former correctional officer who filed early. With the March 31 petition filing deadline approaching for the June 2 primary, the field appears set barring late entrants.

Nikki Gronli leads trader consensus at 52.5% in the South Dakota at-large Democratic primary for U.S. House, driven by her superior fundraising—exceeding Scott Schlagel's reported $25,000—and endorsements including former House Majority Leader Billie Sutton, alongside her background as ex-USDA Rural Development State Director and South Dakota Democratic Party vice chair. Billy Mawhiney's February withdrawal from the race, after entering first last August, has consolidated backing for Gronli, dropping his odds to 2%, while Schlagel lingers at 10.5% as a lower-profile former correctional officer who filed early. With the March 31 petition filing deadline approaching for the June 2 primary, the field appears set barring late entrants.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nikki Gronli" at 54%, followed by "Scott Schlagel" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" is "Nikki Gronli" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Scott Schlagel" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.