In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination prevailed decisively, including Jonathan Jackson in IL-1, Bill Foster in IL-11, and Nikki Budzinski in IL-13 with 84% of the vote, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and minimal serious challenges in safe Democratic districts. With five Democratic incumbents retiring beforehand—creating open-seat contests rather than incumbent defenses—traders have priced "No" at 61.7%, incorporating the wisdom of crowds on preliminary results amid standard post-election certification by the Illinois State Board of Elections, expected soon. No late-breaking recounts or disputes have emerged to shift sentiment in the closely watched Chicago-area battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination prevailed decisively, including Jonathan Jackson in IL-1, Bill Foster in IL-11, and Nikki Budzinski in IL-13 with 84% of the vote, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and minimal serious challenges in safe Democratic districts. With five Democratic incumbents retiring beforehand—creating open-seat contests rather than incumbent defenses—traders have priced "No" at 61.7%, incorporating the wisdom of crowds on preliminary results amid standard post-election certification by the Illinois State Board of Elections, expected soon. No late-breaking recounts or disputes have emerged to shift sentiment in the closely watched Chicago-area battlegrounds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$413End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination prevailed decisively, including Jonathan Jackson in IL-1, Bill Foster in IL-11, and Nikki Budzinski in IL-13 with 84% of the vote, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and minimal serious challenges in safe Democratic districts. With five Democratic incumbents retiring beforehand—creating open-seat contests rather than incumbent defenses—traders have priced "No" at 61.7%, incorporating the wisdom of crowds on preliminary results amid standard post-election certification by the Illinois State Board of Elections, expected soon. No late-breaking recounts or disputes have emerged to shift sentiment in the closely watched Chicago-area battlegrounds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$413End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination prevailed decisively, including Jonathan Jackson in IL-1, Bill Foster in IL-11, and Nikki Budzinski in IL-13 with 84% of the vote, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and minimal serious challenges in safe Democratic districts. With five Democratic incumbents retiring beforehand—creating open-seat contests rather than incumbent defenses—traders have priced "No" at 61.7%, incorporating the wisdom of crowds on preliminary results amid standard post-election certification by the Illinois State Board of Elections, expected soon. No late-breaking recounts or disputes have emerged to shift sentiment in the closely watched Chicago-area battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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