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Politics·Illinois

Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?

Market icon
Politics·Illinois

Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?

2% chance
Polymarket

$413 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$413 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Illinois' March 17, 2026, Democratic U.S. House primaries, all incumbents seeking re-election—Jonathan Jackson (District 1), Delia Ramirez (3), Mike Quigley (5), Sean Casten (6), Brad Schneider (10), Bill Foster (11), Nikki Budzinski (13), Lauren Underwood (14), and Eric Sorensen (17)—won decisively, many unopposed and others by 65–79% margins amid weak challengers. Retirements by Danny Davis (7) and Jan Schakowsky (9), plus higher bids by Robin Kelly (2) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (8), created competitive open-seat races but no incumbent defeats. Trader consensus at 97.8% "No" stems from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and loyal voter bases in safe districts. Realistic shifts would require rare post-election challenges like recounts or disqualifications, though margins preclude viable contests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$413
End Date
Mar 17, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Illinois' March 17, 2026, Democratic U.S. House primaries, all incumbents seeking re-election—Jonathan Jackson (District 1), Delia Ramirez (3), Mike Quigley (5), Sean Casten (6), Brad Schneider (10), Bill Foster (11), Nikki Budzinski (13), Lauren Underwood (14), and Eric Sorensen (17)—won decisively, many unopposed and others by 65–79% margins amid weak challengers. Retirements by Danny Davis (7) and Jan Schakowsky (9), plus higher bids by Robin Kelly (2) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (8), created competitive open-seat races but no incumbent defeats. Trader consensus at 97.8% "No" stems from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and loyal voter bases in safe districts. Realistic shifts would require rare post-election challenges like recounts or disqualifications, though margins preclude viable contests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$413
End Date
Mar 17, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.