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Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Kevin Hern 93%

John M. O’Connor 2.1%

Wayne Lonny Washington 1.4%

Stephanie Bice 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Kevin Hern 93%

John M. O’Connor 2.1%

Wayne Lonny Washington 1.4%

Stephanie Bice 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Kevin Hern

$9,079 Vol.

93%

John M. O’Connor

$0 Vol.

2%

Wayne Lonny Washington

$0 Vol.

1%

Stephanie Bice

$0 Vol.

1%

Matt Pinnell

$0 Vol.

1%

Markwayne Mullin

$0 Vol.

1%

Tammy Swearengin

$0 Vol.

1%

Ron Meinhardt

$0 Vol.

1%

Nick Hankins

$0 Vol.

1%

Donelle Harder

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 93% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his rapid campaign launch on March 11 following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, creating an open seat for the full term election. Hern quickly amassed high-profile endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Sen. Tim Scott, and Club for Growth PAC, signaling strong establishment and conservative backing in a state with reliable GOP turnout. With minimal traction from challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell or Rep. Stephanie Bice, traders view Hern's fundraising prowess and House Republican leadership experience—former RSC chair—as unassailable advantages. Potential disruptions include a late high-profile entrant backed by Gov. Stitt or intra-party polling shifts before the April filing deadline and June primary.

Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 93% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his rapid campaign launch on March 11 following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, creating an open seat for the full term election. Hern quickly amassed high-profile endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Sen. Tim Scott, and Club for Growth PAC, signaling strong establishment and conservative backing in a state with reliable GOP turnout. With minimal traction from challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell or Rep. Stephanie Bice, traders view Hern's fundraising prowess and House Republican leadership experience—former RSC chair—as unassailable advantages. Potential disruptions include a late high-profile entrant backed by Gov. Stitt or intra-party polling shifts before the April filing deadline and June primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 93% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his rapid campaign launch on March 11 following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, creating an open seat for the full term election. Hern quickly amassed high-profile endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Sen. Tim Scott, and Club for Growth PAC, signaling strong establishment and conservative backing in a state with reliable GOP turnout. With minimal traction from challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell or Rep. Stephanie Bice, traders view Hern's fundraising prowess and House Republican leadership experience—former RSC chair—as unassailable advantages. Potential disruptions include a late high-profile entrant backed by Gov. Stitt or intra-party polling shifts before the April filing deadline and June primary.

Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 93% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his rapid campaign launch on March 11 following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, creating an open seat for the full term election. Hern quickly amassed high-profile endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Sen. Tim Scott, and Club for Growth PAC, signaling strong establishment and conservative backing in a state with reliable GOP turnout. With minimal traction from challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell or Rep. Stephanie Bice, traders view Hern's fundraising prowess and House Republican leadership experience—former RSC chair—as unassailable advantages. Potential disruptions include a late high-profile entrant backed by Gov. Stitt or intra-party polling shifts before the April filing deadline and June primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Hern" at 93%, followed by "John M. O’Connor" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Kevin Hern" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John M. O’Connor" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.