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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner

$16,610 Vol.

Polymarket

$16,610 Vol.

Jeff Merkley

$10,874 Vol.

97%

Jacob Ryan

$5,737 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.5% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary reflects his entrenched incumbency advantage and lack of serious challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest.** As the longtime Democratic holder of the seat, first elected in 2008 and re-elected comfortably in 2020 with 56.9% amid uncompetitive primaries, Merkley benefits from strong party loyalty, superior fundraising, and name recognition in a deep-blue state. Jacob Ryan, a low-profile challenger, trails at 2.5% with minimal visibility or resources. No major developments, such as scandals, endorsements, or polling shifts, have emerged in the past 30 days to alter trader consensus. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking personal issues, health events, or unexpected voter turnout surges, though historical primary base rates heavily favor incumbents.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,610
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.5% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary reflects his entrenched incumbency advantage and lack of serious challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest.** As the longtime Democratic holder of the seat, first elected in 2008 and re-elected comfortably in 2020 with 56.9% amid uncompetitive primaries, Merkley benefits from strong party loyalty, superior fundraising, and name recognition in a deep-blue state. Jacob Ryan, a low-profile challenger, trails at 2.5% with minimal visibility or resources. No major developments, such as scandals, endorsements, or polling shifts, have emerged in the past 30 days to alter trader consensus. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking personal issues, health events, or unexpected voter turnout surges, though historical primary base rates heavily favor incumbents.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,610
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jeff Merkley" at 97%, followed by "Jacob Ryan" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $16.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 26, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Jeff Merkley" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jacob Ryan" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.