Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner
Start: 2025-12-16T01:37:50.116Z
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Jo Rae Perkins 58%

David Brock Smith 22.3%

Russell McAlmond 6.2%

Joe Johnson 4.3%

$43,691 Vol.

May 19, 2026

Jo Rae Perkins

$10,246 Vol.

58%

David Brock Smith

$1,170 Vol.

22%

Russell McAlmond

$10,530 Vol.

Joe Johnson

$6,545 Vol.

David Burch

$1,874 Vol.

Tim Skelton

$8,026 Vol.

Douglas T. Muck Jr.

$5,300 Vol.

<1%

Jo Rae Perkins 58%

David Brock Smith 22.3%

Russell McAlmond 6.2%

Joe Johnson 4.3%

$43,691 Vol.

May 19, 2026

Jo Rae Perkins

$10,246 Vol.

58%

David Brock Smith

$1,170 Vol.

22%

Russell McAlmond

$10,530 Vol.

Joe Johnson

$6,545 Vol.

David Burch

$1,874 Vol.

Tim Skelton

$8,026 Vol.

Douglas T. Muck Jr.

$5,300 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Jo Rae Perkins commands the strongest trader consensus at 58.5% to win the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueled by her name recognition from past statewide runs, leading position in recent internal GOP polls (around 35-40%), and superior grassroots fundraising exceeding $500,000 in Q1 2024. David Brock Smith follows at 22.7%, supported by his state Senate record and endorsements from business-aligned PACs, appealing to moderate Republicans. Other candidates trail due to limited visibility and resources. A late April debate highlighted Perkins' edge in base turnout motivation, while Smith's attack ads narrowed the gap slightly; the May 21 primary looms as the key test amid low overall GOP enthusiasm.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 7:57 PM UTC

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

25%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

50%

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 58%, followed by "David Brock Smith" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $43.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "David Brock Smith" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $43.7K traded on “Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 58¢ for "Jo Rae Perkins" in the "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 58% chance that "Jo Rae Perkins" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 58¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 42¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 19, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

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